Connahs Quay - Penybont prediction 3 October 2026

Connahs Quay vs Penybont prediction for October 3, 2026, in the Wales Premier League. Based on our win probability analysis, Connahs Quay has a 47% chance to win, with the draw at 27% and Penybont at 26%.

Team Form

Connahs Quay's recent form reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five matches. Most recently, they won 4-1 away at Barry Town on Sep 26. Prior to that, they secured a 1-0 home victory over Cardiff Metropolitan and a 3-0 home win against Airbus UK. However, they then lost 2-1 at Colwyn Bay and played out a 1-1 home draw with Haverfordwest County, collecting 10 points from a possible 15.

Penybont, in contrast, have won all of their last five games (W-W-W-W-W). Their run includes a 2-1 home win over Airbus UK, a 5-1 away thrashing of Ammanford AFC, a 3-2 home success against Briton Ferry Llansawel, a 1-0 away victory at Trefelin, and a 1-0 home win over Colwyn Bay. They have scored 12 goals in these five matches and are yet to be beaten in the league this season.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favours Connahs Quay: 13 wins, 8 draws, and only 2 wins for Penybont in 23 meetings. Looking at the most recent encounters, Connahs Quay won 2-1 at home on Mar 21, 2026; they drew 0-0 at Penybont on Feb 14, 2026; recorded a 4-0 home win on Nov 8, 2025; a 1-0 away win on Aug 30, 2025; while Penybont registered a 1-0 home win on Jan 4, 2025. Thus, Connahs Quay have won three of the last five, and have kept clean sheets in three of those fixtures.

League Table Positions

Connahs Quay sit 3rd with 25 points from 11 matches (8 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses), having scored 27 goals and conceded only 8 (goal difference +19). Penybont are 2nd with 27 points from 11 games (8 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses), with 22 goals scored and 9 conceded (+13). At home, Connahs Quay have 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss (13 points from 6). Penybont's away record stands at 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses (13 points from 5).

Win Probability: Connahs Quay or Penybont?

We calculate the win probabilities as: Connahs Quay 47%, Draw 27%, Penybont 26%. The raw odds (2.05, 3.15, 3.30) after removing the bookmaker margin imply probabilities of 44.0%, 28.6%, and 27.3%. We adjusted these upward for Connahs Quay due to their overwhelming head-to-head dominance (13 wins to 2) and home advantage, while Penybont's unbeaten away record and five-game winning streak prevent a larger shift. As a result, Connahs Quay remains the statistical front-runner, but the match is expected to be competitive.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' odds for the 1X2 market are: Connahs Quay win at 2.05, the draw at 3.15, and Penybont win at 3.30. These betting odds confirm Connahs Quay as the favourite. Given the head-to-head history and current form, a home win is the most likely outcome, but Penybont's resilience means a draw is a realistic possibility. A tight scoreline such as 1-0 or 2-1 to Connahs Quay seems plausible based on the stats.