Montedio Yamagata - Consadole Sapporo prediction 21 October 2026

Our Montedio Yamagata vs Consadole Sapporo prediction analyzes this J2 League clash set for Oct 21 at 05:00. Bookmakers lean toward the draw as the most likely result, but recent head-to-head and form data point toward a slight edge for Consadole Sapporo. Based on the stats, Consadole Sapporo has a 45% win probability, the draw stands at 30%, and Montedio Yamagata is at 25%.

Team Form

Montedio Yamagata enter this match in poor shape, with only one win in their last five outings (W1, D1, L3). Their most recent fixture was a 0-0 draw away to Fujieda MYFC on Oct 17. Before that, they suffered three consecutive defeats against Vegalta Sendai (0-1), Oita Trinita (1-2), and Yokohama F Marinos (1-2) in the League Cup. Their only positive result in this run was a 2-0 home victory over Sagan Tosu on Sep 26.

Consadole Sapporo's form is slightly better, recording two wins and three losses in their last five matches (W2, L3). They secured a 1-0 home win against Blaublitz Akita on Oct 17 and a 2-1 home win over Iwaki on Oct 4. However, they fell to defeats against Jubilo Iwata (0-1), Fagiano Okayama (1-2) in the League Cup, and Tegevajaro Miyazaki (2-3). Their form is inconsistent, but they have managed to find the net in four of those five games.

Head-to-Head Record

The recent head-to-head record between these two sides is perfectly balanced on paper, with 1 win for Montedio Yamagata and 1 win for Consadole Sapporo from their two encounters. Both matches were played during the 2025 J2 League season. Consadole Sapporo won 1-0 at home on May 3, 2025, when they hosted Montedio Yamagata. The reverse fixture on Oct 4, 2025, saw Montedio Yamagata claim a 2-1 away victory. Interestingly, the away team won on both occasions.

League Table Positions

Based on the provided standings data, neither Montedio Yamagata nor Consadole Sapporo currently feature in the top 12 positions of the J2 League overall table or the specific home/away tables. The league table is led by Vegalta Sendai with 24 points from 11 matches. Omiya Ardija and Albirex Niigata follow closely. Without their exact positions, it is clear both sides are underperforming relative to the league's top teams and likely sit in the lower half of the table, making this a crucial match to climb the standings.

Win Probability: Montedio Yamagata or Consadole Sapporo?

To calculate the win probability, we start with the best available bookmaker odds: a home win at 2.70, a draw at 2.15, and an away win at 2.95. Inverting these odds gives implied probabilities, which we then normalize to remove the bookmaker margin. After adjusting for recent form (Consadole Sapporo's two wins in five vs. Montedio's one win in five) and the head-to-head record where the away team has won both previous meetings, the data suggests a shift in favor of the visitors. Montedio Yamagata has a 25% chance of winning, the draw stands at a 30% probability, and Consadole Sapporo emerges as the more likely winner with a 45% chance. The H2H trend of away wins and Montedio's poor recent defensive record are the key factors influencing this conclusion.

Odds & Match Prediction

The current odds from the bookmakers show the draw as the favorite outcome. The best odds available are 2.70 for a Montedio Yamagata win, a very short 2.15 for the draw, and 3.10 for a Consadole Sapporo victory. While the market highest probability on a stalemate, our analysis suggests there is value in the away win. Based on the stats, the head-to-head pattern, and Consadole Sapporo's marginally better form, our prediction leans towards an away victory. However, given the low-risk odds on a draw, this is a match where punters should carefully consider the match outcome probabilities before placing a bet.