Correcaminos UAT - Tampico Madero prediction 26 September 2026

This Correcaminos UAT vs Tampico Madero prediction covers the Liga de Expansion MX match on Sep 26 at 02:00. Based on the 1X2 odds, recent form, head-to-head record and league table positions, Correcaminos UAT are slight favorites with a 41% win probability, while the draw is 33% and Tampico Madero have a 26% chance.

Team Form

Correcaminos UAT enter this match with last five results: L, D, L, D, W. In that run they lost 3-1 to Atletico La Paz, drew 2-2 with Cancun FC, lost 4-1 to Piratas Veracruz, drew 0-0 with Alacranes de Durango and won 3-1 away to Atletico Morelia. Their two home matches in this sequence both ended as draws.

Tampico Madero last five results are D, L, W, L, W. They drew 1-1 with Dorados de Sinaloa, lost 3-1 to Tlaxcala FC, beat Venados FC 4-3, lost 2-0 to Mineros de Zacatecas and beat Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2-1. The wins came at home, while the recent away defeats were against Tlaxcala FC and Mineros de Zacatecas.

Head-to-Head Record

Tampico Madero lead the recent H2H record with 2 wins, while Correcaminos UAT have 1 win and 1 draw. The last four meetings:

• Mar 19, 2026: Tampico Madero 3-1 Correcaminos UAT
• Feb 22, 2026: Tampico Madero 0-0 Correcaminos UAT
• Sep 13, 2025: Correcaminos UAT 1-2 Tampico Madero
• Jan 31, 2025: Correcaminos UAT 2-1 Tampico Madero

This head-to-head record keeps Tampico Madero competitive in the prediction, but their away results are a concern.

League Table Positions

Correcaminos UAT are 10th overall with 12 points from 9 matches: 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses, with 18 goals scored and 18 conceded. Tampico Madero are 12th with 11 points from 9 matches: 3 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses, scoring 11 and conceding 15. The gap is only one point, but Correcaminos UAT have home advantage. Tampico Madero are third in the home table with 11 points from 5 home matches, but this match is away.

Win Probability: Correcaminos UAT or Tampico Madero?

Using the 1X2 odds as the base and normalizing the two available sets, the bookmaker-implied chances are roughly 36.4% for a Correcaminos UAT win, 36.8% for the draw and 26.8% for a Tampico Madero win. Adjusting for Correcaminos UAT home advantage, overall position and Tampico Madero away form, the final probability is: Correcaminos UAT 41%, draw 33%, and Tampico Madero 26%. Correcaminos UAT has a 41% chance of winning, the draw is at 33%, and Tampico Madero has a 26% chance.

The close listed odds reflect how tight the overall records are. However, Correcaminos UAT are the more likely winner because they have home advantage and are one point ahead in the table.

Odds & Match Prediction

The available bookmaker odds are: Correcaminos UAT 2.30, draw 2.30, Tampico Madero 3.20; and Correcaminos UAT 2.25, draw 2.20, Tampico Madero 2.98. Bookmakers see Correcaminos UAT and the draw as the most likely outcomes, with Tampico Madero as the outsider.

Based on the stats, the Correcaminos UAT vs Tampico Madero prediction is a home win or draw double chance, with the home win favored narrowly. For betting tips, the key angles are Correcaminos UAT’s home advantage and the longer odds on Tampico Madero.