Corsarios de Campeche - Ejidatarios de Bonfil prediction 2 October 2026

The Corsarios de Campeche vs Ejidatarios de Bonfil prediction for the Liga TDP match on Oct 2, 2026 at 22:00 points to a likely home win. Based on recent form, head-to-head record and odds, Corsarios de Campeche have a 40% chance of winning, the draw is at 35% and Ejidatarios de Bonfil sit at 25%.

Team Form

Corsarios de Campeche are in excellent shape. They are unbeaten in their last five matches (W-D-W-W-D) and haven't conceded a single goal in those five outings. Their recent results include a 2-0 away win over Pioneros Cancun II, a 0-0 home draw with Estudiantes de Atlacomulco, a 1-0 home win against Pioneros Cancun II, a 1-0 away victory at Deportiva Venados II and a 0-0 away draw at Progreso Yucatan. That's five consecutive clean sheets — a remarkable defensive record.

Ejidatarios de Bonfil, by contrast, have been inconsistent. Their last five results read D-L-W-L-W. They drew 1-1 at home to Deportiva Venados II, lost 3-0 away to Bombarderos de Tacamac, beat Bombarderos 3-1 at home, lost 1-0 away to Progreso Yucatan and won 2-0 away at Pioneros Cancun II. They've managed just two wins in that span and conceded five goals in two of those matches, showing vulnerability at the back.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favours the home side. Corsarios de Campeche and Ejidatarios de Bonfil have met twice in the Liga TDP, both matches won by Corsarios de Campeche. They triumphed 2-0 on Nov 21, 2025 and 2-1 on Feb 14, 2025 — both at home. Ejidatarios de Bonfil have never taken a point off Corsarios.

Win Probability: Corsarios de Campeche or Ejidatarios de Bonfil?

Calculating from the available odds (home 2.70, draw 1.95, away 3.80), the bookmakers' implied probabilities before margin removal are roughly 32.3% for a home win, 44.7% for the draw and 23.0% for an away win. However, those raw figures don't fully reflect the on-pitch situation.

We adjust the probabilities based on Corsarios' five-match clean-sheet streak and their 100% head-to-head record. Our assessment: Corsarios de Campeche have a 40% chance of winning, the draw is at 35% and Ejidatarios de Bonfil have a 25% chance. The home side's defensive solidity and H2H dominance shift the likelihood in their favour, though the draw remains a realistic outcome given the low-scoring recent outings.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers have priced the draw as the most probable single outcome at odds of 1.95, while a home win is availabl at 2.70 and an away win at 3.80. That market skew reflects how tight this match looks on paper — but the underlying stats paint a different picture. Based on the form and head-to-head data, our prediction is Corsarios de Campeche to win. With a 40% probability and odds of 2.70, a home win offers value. The 'Draw no bet' on Corsarios or the simple win market are the sensible betting tips. Keep in mind that a low-scoring affair is likely: four of Corsarios' last five matches had under 1.5 total goals.