Ceara CE - Criciuma SC prediction 8 October 2026

The Ceara CE vs Criciuma SC prediction for this Serie B clash on October 8, 2026, at 23:30 local time points to a home victory for Ceara CE, with a 45% win probability. Bookmakers also see the hosts as favorites, and an unbeaten head-to-head record against Criciuma SC strengthens the case for a home win.

Team Form

Ceara CE

Ceara CE's last five matches show a mixed but competitive run: W, D, W, D, L. They secured a 1-0 away win at Avai SC on October 3, followed by a 2-2 draw at Operario PR on September 26. A 2-1 home victory over Gremio Novorizontino SP on September 19 highlighted their strength at home, while a 1-1 draw at Fortaleza CE and a 2-1 loss at Atletico Goianiense GO rounded out the sequence. Two wins and two draws in five games indicate solid form, especially at home.

Criciuma SC

Criciuma SC's recent form has dipped sharply: W, W, L, L, L. They started with a 2-0 away win at Londrina PR on October 3 and a 3-0 home win over Avai SC on September 27. However, three consecutive defeats followed—0-2 at home to Operario PR, a heavy 4-0 loss at Atletico Goianiense GO, and a 0-2 home loss to Juventude RS. With three straight losses and only two goals scored in those defeats, the visitors arrive with low confidence.

Head-to-Head Record

Ceara CE has dominated this fixture historically, with 4 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses against Criciuma SC. The last five meetings underline that superiority:

• Jun 16, 2026: Criciuma SC 1-1 Ceara CE
• Sep 2, 2023: Ceara CE 1-0 Criciuma SC
• May 21, 2023: Criciuma SC 1-2 Ceara CE
• Nov 18, 2017: Criciuma SC 1-1 Ceara CE (twice)

Ceara CE has never lost to Criciuma SC in this dataset, winning two and drawing three of the last five encounters. That psychological edge could prove decisive.

League Table Positions

In the overall Serie B standings, Criciuma SC sits 4th with 53 points from 31 matches (15 wins, 8 draws, 8 losses). Ceara CE is outside the top 12, indicating a lower league position. However, Criciuma's away form (4th in the away table with 22 points from 15 games) has been inconsistent lately, while Ceara CE's home advantage may offset the table gap. The hosts' recent performances suggest they can compete above their league standing.

Win Probability: Ceara CE or Criciuma SC?

Based on all available data, the win probabilities are: Ceara CE 45%, draw 30%, Criciuma SC 25%. The calculation starts from the inverse of the opening odds (home 2.56, draw 3.17, away 3.13), which after removing the bookmaker margin gives roughly 38% home, 31% draw, 31% away. Adjustments were made for Ceara CE's unbeaten H2H record (4 wins, 3 draws), Criciuma SC's three-match losing streak, and the home advantage. Ceara CE is clearly the more likely winner, but the draw remains a significant possibility given the visitors' higher league position and the tight odds.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer varying odds, with a typical set showing a Ceara CE win at 2.56, a draw at 3.17, and a Criciuma SC win at 3.13. Other books quote as low as 2.30 for the home win and 2.00 for the draw, reflecting some uncertainty. Based on the stats, Ceara CE is the favorite to win, and our prediction leans toward a home victory. However, the draw cannot be dismissed, making a double chance (1X) a sensible betting tip for risk-averse punters.