Club Necaxa Women - Cruz Azul Women prediction 4 October 2026

The Club Necaxa Women vs Cruz Azul Women prediction for October 4, 2026, in the Liga MX Women points to an away victory. Cruz Azul Women enters this match as the strong favorite, with a win probability of 70%, while Club Necaxa Women has just an 8% chance of winning at Estadio Victoria. The match kicks off at 04:10 local time.

Team Form

Club Necaxa Women Recent Results

Club Necaxa Women are in dreadful form, losing their last five matches. They suffered a 0-4 home defeat to Toluca Women on Sep 29, a 0-10 away thrashing at Monterrey Women on Sep 19, a 0-1 loss at Juarez Women on Sep 13, a 0-2 home loss to Atletico San Luis Women on Sep 6, and a 1-4 away loss to Puebla Women on Aug 30. The team has failed to score in four of those five games, conceding 21 goals in total.

Cruz Azul Women Recent Results

Cruz Azul Women's form is mixed but better, with two wins in their last five. They lost 0-1 at home to Chivas Guadalajara Women on Sep 26, lost 0-2 at Santos Laguna Women on Sep 22, beat Unam Pumas Women 3-2 at home on Sep 12, won 2-0 at Queretaro Women on Sep 6, and lost 0-1 at Juarez Women on Aug 30. They have scored 5 goals and conceded 6 in this period.

Head-to-Head Record

These teams have met three times in recent Liga MX Women history. The head-to-head record is perfectly balanced: one win for Club Necaxa Women, one draw, and one win for Cruz Azul Women. The most recent meeting was on Mar 12, 2026, when Cruz Azul Women won 3-0 at home. Before that, on Aug 19, 2025, they played a 3-3 draw at Club Necaxa Women, and on Apr 12, 2025, Club Necaxa Women won 1-0 at home. The last encounter suggests Cruz Azul Women has the upper hand.

League Table Positions

In the overall Liga MX Women standings, Cruz Azul Women sits 12th with 12 points from 9 matches (4 wins, 0 draws, 5 losses), scoring 11 goals and conceding 21. Club Necaxa Women is outside the top 12, indicating a lower position and likely fewer points. The home and away standings also do not feature Club Necaxa Women in the top 8, while Cruz Azul Women is 7th in the home standings with 9 points from 5 home games. This gap in the table further supports the away team's favoritism.

Win Probability: Club Necaxa Women or Cruz Azul Women?

Based on the odds, team form, head-to-head record, and league positions, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Club Necaxa Women has an 8% chance of winning, the draw is at 22%, and Cruz Azul Women has a 70% chance. The bookmakers' average odds of 18.38 for a home win, 3.59 for a draw, and 1.30 for an away win imply probabilities of roughly 5%, 25%, and 70% after removing the margin. Adjusting for Club Necaxa Women's five-match losing streak and Cruz Azul Women's slightly better form and higher table position, the away win remains the most likely outcome. Cruz Azul Women is clearly the team more likely to win this match.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds for this match show Club Necaxa Women at 21.00, the draw at 3.80, and Cruz Azul Women at 1.25. On average, bookmakers price a home win around 18.38, a draw at 3.59, and an away win at 1.30. These odds reflect the huge gap between the sides. Based on the stats, our Club Necaxa Women vs Cruz Azul Women prediction is a comfortable away win for Cruz Azul Women. The head-to-head and current form point to a low-scoring affair, but Cruz Azul Women should have enough quality to secure all three points.