CSKA Sofia - FC Arda Kardzhali prediction 12 September 2026

CSKA Sofia vs FC Arda Kardzhali prediction for the 1st League match on Sep 12, 2026, at 18:15. CSKA Sofia is the clear favorite, with a 50% win probability based on odds, recent form, and a dominant head-to-head record.

Team Form

CSKA Sofia come into this match unbeaten in their last five league games, with three wins and two draws. Their last five results: a 1-1 draw away at Spartak Varna, a 3-1 home win over Cherno More Varna, a 0-0 draw at Lokomotiv Sofia, a 5-0 home thrashing of Botev Vratsa, and a 3-0 away win at Septemvri Sofia. Over that period, they scored 12 goals and conceded only 2, showing strong defensive solidity. At home, CSKA Sofia have a perfect record this season — four wins from four, with 13 goals for and 4 against.

FC Arda Kardzhali saw their four-match winning streak snapped in their last outing: a 2-3 home defeat to Botev Plovdiv. Before that, they had beaten Botev Vratsa 2-0 at home, won 1-0 at Lokomotiv Plovdiv, defeated Lokomotiv Sofia 3-1 at home, and won 2-0 at Dunav Ruse. Despite the recent loss, Arda have been in good form overall, but their away record (two wins, one draw, one loss) is less convincing than CSKA Sofia's home form.

Head-to-Head Record

CSKA Sofia have historically dominated this fixture. In 24 previous meetings, CSKA Sofia have won 15, there have been 8 draws, and FC Arda Kardzhali have won just once. The last five matches tell a similar story: CSKA won 3-1 at home in February 2026, lost 1-0 away in September 2025, drew 1-1 away in May 2025, won 2-1 at home in the Cup in February 2025, and won 2-0 at home in February 2025. CSKA have won three of those five, with Arda's only recent win coming at home. The head-to-head data strongly points to another CSKA Sofia victory.

League Table Positions

After 7 rounds, CSKA Sofia sit 3rd in the 1st League with 17 points (5 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses), scoring 17 and conceding 5. FC Arda Kardzhali are 5th, having played 8 matches, with 16 points (5 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses), and a goal difference of 13-7. CSKA have a game in hand and are still undefeated. CSKA Sofia's home form is 2nd best in the league, while Arda's away form ranks 3rd. The gap in points is minimal, but CSKA's defensive record and home advantage give them a clear edge in the table context.

Win Probability: CSKA Sofia or FC Arda Kardzhali?

Probability calculation based on the latest odds (1.73 for home, 2.15 for draw, 4.50 for away) and adjusted for team form, head-to-head record, and home/away performance. Removing the bookmaker margin, the true probabilities from the odds are approximately 45.7% for a CSKA win, 36.8% for a draw, and 17.6% for an Arda win. Given CSKA Sofia's perfect home record, their dominant H2H (15 wins, 8 draws, 1 loss), and Arda's recent home defeat, we adjust the home win probability upward. The final assessment: CSKA Sofia has a 50% chance of winning, the draw is at 30%, and FC Arda Kardzhali has a 20% chance. The total equals 100%. CSKA Sofia are the more likely winners.

CSKA Sofia vs FC Arda Kardzhali Prediction

Bookmakers see CSKA Sofia as the clear favorite. The best odds available are around 1.73 for a home win, 2.22 for the draw, and 4.75 for an away win. Based on the stats, CSKA Sofia's solid defence, home form, and historical dominance make them the most probable winner. A home win is the predicted match outcome. While Arda have shown they can score away from home, CSKA's defensive record at home (only 4 goals conceded in 4 home games) suggests they will control the game. Betting tips: a CSKA Sofia win is the safest option, and the under 2.5 goals could also be worth considering given the likely tight nature of the match.