Lokomotiv Sofia - CSKA Sofia prediction 16 September 2026

The CSKA Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia prediction for this Bulgarian 1st League clash on September 16, 2026, points to a strong away win. CSKA Sofia enter the match as clear favourites with an estimated 58% win probability, while Lokomotiv Sofia face an uphill battle. Kick-off is at 16:00 UTC at Stadion Lokomotiv in Poltava.

Team Form

Lokomotiv Sofia are winless in their last five league matches (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses). Their recent results include a 2-2 draw at Cherno More Varna and a 1-2 home defeat to Ludogorets Razgrad. The hosts have struggled to find consistency, with only one clean sheet in that span.

CSKA Sofia, on the other hand, boast impressive form: 3 wins, 2 draws in their last five outings, including a 4-1 victory over FC Arda Kardzhali and a 3-1 home win against Cherno More Varna. They remain unbeaten in the league this season (5 wins, 2 draws).

Head-to-Head Record

CSKA Sofia dominate the historical meetings. In 14 encounters across all competitions, CSKA have 8 wins, 6 draws, and Lokomotiv Sofia have none. The most recent H2H match ended 0-0 on August 24, 2026, but prior to that CSKA won 2-0 and 2-1 in cup action. The away side has not lost to Lokomotiv since records in this dataset begin.

League Table Positions

CSKA Sofia sit 3rd in the 1st League with 17 points from 7 games (5 wins, 2 draws). Their away record is strong: 4 goals scored and only 1 conceded in 3 away matches. Lokomotiv Sofia are not listed in the overall standings, but their away table position shows 4 points from 5 away games (0 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss), highlighting their struggles on the road.

Win Probability: CSKA Sofia or Lokomotiv Sofia?

Based on the odds, form, head-to-head record, and league positions, here are the calculated probabilities:

• CSKA Sofia win: 58%
• Draw: 27%
• Lokomotiv Sofia win: 15%

CSKA Sofia are the heavy favourites. The odds from bookmakers (averaging around 1.95 for an away win) reflect their dominance. Combined with their unbeaten league run and Lokomotiv’s winless H2H record, the visitors are expected to take all three points.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers have consistently backed CSKA Sofia, with the best away odds at 1.95 (latest lines show 1.59 after adjustments). The draw is priced at about 2.50, while a Lokomotiv home win is as high as 5.25. Based on the stats, CSKA Sofia’s superior form and historical edge make them the logical pick. Our final prediction: CSKA Sofia to win, with the most likely scoreline being a 1-0 or 2-0 victory.