Cumbaya - 22 de Julio FC prediction 15 October 2026

The 22 de Julio FC vs Cumbaya prediction for this Ecuadorian Serie B clash on Sep 17, 2026, at 20:30, points to an away victory. Based on the latest odds and team data, Cumbaya has a 55% chance of winning, while 22 de Julio FC sits at just 10% and the draw at 35%.

Team Form

22 de Julio FC come into this match in dreadful form, having lost their last five matches in Serie B. They were beaten 3-0 by El Nacional, 3-0 by Gualaceo SC, 3-0 by CD Santo Domingo, 2-0 by LDU Portoviejo, and 1-0 by Deportivo Cuenca Juniors. They have failed to score in all five games, conceding 12 goals.

Cumbaya's recent results are slightly better but still unconvincing. Their last five outings: a 1-0 loss to Gualaceo SC, a 2-1 defeat at CD Santo Domingo, a 0-0 draw with LDU Portoviejo, a 3-0 loss at Atletico JBG Rojiblanco Guayaqui, and a 3-3 draw with CD Santo Domingo. Two draws and three losses show a lack of wins, but they have managed to find the net in three of those matches.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors Cumbaya. In the last six meetings, Cumbaya has won four times, 22 de Julio FC twice, with no draws. The most recent encounter on Jul 02, 2026, saw Cumbaya thrash 22 de Julio FC 4-0 at home. Earlier this season, on Apr 17, 2026, 22 de Julio FC managed a 2-1 home victory. Overall, Cumbaya has outscored 22 de Julio FC 10-4 across those six matches.

League Table Positions

In the Serie B standings, Cumbaya sits 10th with 26 points from 22 matches (5 wins, 11 draws, 6 losses, goals 22:22). 22 de Julio FC is 11th with just 15 points (4 wins, 3 draws, 15 losses, goals 10:31). The 11-point gap and huge goal difference underline the gulf in performance this season. 22 de Julio FC has the worst defensive record in the league, conceding 31 goals.

Win Probability: 22 de Julio FC or Cumbaya?

After analyzing the odds, form, head-to-head, and league positions, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: 22 de Julio FC win – 10%, draw – 35%, Cumbaya win – 55%. The bookmakers' odds imply a similar distribution, with Cumbaya as the clear favorite. The home team's five-match losing streak and inability to score, combined with Cumbaya's historical dominance and higher league standing, make an away win the most likely outcome. However, Cumbaya's own inconsistent form and two recent draws leave room for a stalemate.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers are offering odds around 11.00 for a 22 de Julio FC home win, 2.25 for the draw, and 1.75 for a Cumbaya away victory. These odds reflect the low probability of a home upset. Our prediction: based on the stats, Cumbaya to win is the safest call, but a low-scoring draw cannot be ruled out given both teams' struggles. A 0-1 or 0-2 away win looks plausible.