Cyprus - Latvia prediction 5 October 2026

The Cyprus vs Latvia prediction for the UEFA Nations League match on Oct 5, 2026, points to a home victory. Based on the latest odds and recent form, Cyprus has a 60% chance of winning, while Latvia sits at just 15%. The match kicks off at 17:00 at GSP Stadium in Nicosia.

Team Form

Cyprus come into this fixture with a mixed but slightly positive run. In their last five matches, they recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss. Most recently, they beat Armenia 2-0 at home on Oct 2, following a 0-0 draw away to Latvia and a 1-2 defeat at Montenegro. Earlier friendly wins over Liechtenstein (2-0) and a draw with Slovenia (1-1) complete the picture. At home, Cyprus have won two of their last three, keeping a clean sheet in the last outing.

Latvia's form is more inconsistent. Their last five results show two wins, one draw, and two losses. They lost 1-2 at home to Montenegro on Oct 2, drew 0-0 with Cyprus, and were beaten 2-0 at Armenia. Prior to that, they secured back-to-back 1-0 wins over Gibraltar in March. Away from home, Latvia have lost two of their last three, failing to score in those defeats.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between Cyprus and Latvia is perfectly balanced, with no wins for either side in two meetings. Both matches ended in draws: a 0-0 stalemate in the UEFA Nations League on Sep 28, 2026, and a 1-1 friendly on Mar 21, 2024. The lack of a winner in either encounter suggests a tight contest, but home advantage could tip the scales this time.

Win Probability: Cyprus or Latvia?

After analyzing the odds, team form, and head-to-head data, we calculate the following win probabilities for this match:

• Cyprus win: 60%
• Draw: 25%
• Latvia win: 15%

The bookmaker odds heavily favor Cyprus, with an implied probability of nearly 60% after removing the margin. We adjusted slightly upward for Cyprus due to their solid home form and Latvia's recent away struggles. The head-to-head draws keep the draw probability at a significant 25%, but Latvia's low chance reflects their poor away scoring record and overall inconsistency. Cyprus is the clear favorite to take all three points.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds for the 1X2 market are 1.66 for a Cyprus win, 3.94 for a draw, and 6.56 for a Latvia win. Bookmakers see Cyprus as the strong favorite, and the odds imply a low-scoring affair given the recent 0-0 between these sides. Based on the stats, Cyprus is expected to win, but a draw cannot be ruled out given the head-to-head history. A narrow home victory is the most likely outcome.