Ispe FC - Dagon Star United prediction 9 October 2026

The Ispe FC vs Dagon Star United prediction for October 9, 2026, sees the away team as the clear favorite. In this Myanmar National League clash at 10:00, Dagon Star United holds a strong 66% win probability based on form, league table, and odds, while struggling Ispe FC sits at just 17%.

Team Form

Ispe FC heads into this fixture in poor shape, with their last five results reading L, L, W, W, L. Most recently, they suffered a 2-4 home defeat to Mahar Sagaing United FC on Sep 7 and a 1-2 away loss at Ayeyawady United on Aug 29. These results highlight defensive vulnerabilities: they have conceded six goals in their last two league matches.

In stark contrast, Dagon Star United arrives in excellent form with a recent record of W, W, L, D, W. They demolished Ayeyawady United 5-0 away on Sep 6 and secured a solid 2-0 home win against Hantharwady United on Aug 29. The team has scored seven goals and conceded zero in their two league games this season, showing dominance on both ends of the pitch.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record is perfectly balanced over the last five meetings: Ispe FC have 2 wins, Dagon Star United have 2 wins, and there has been 1 draw. The most recent encounter on Feb 9, 2026, ended in a 3-1 victory for Dagon Star United at home. Before that, on Sep 20, 2025, they played out a 1-1 draw when Ispe FC were the hosts. The alternating results suggest neither side has managed sustained dominance in this fixture.

League Table Positions

The league table underlines the gulf in current performance. Dagon Star United sit top of the National League with 6 points from 2 games (2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses), having scored 7 goals and conceded 0. Ispe FC are languishing in 11th place with 0 points (2 losses), scoring 3 but conceding 6. Notably, Dagon Star United's away record is perfect: one win, 5 goals scored, 0 conceded. Ispe FC have not yet played a home game listed in the standings, but their overall two defeats provide little optimism.

Win Probability: Ispe FC or Dagon Star United?

Based on all available data, Dagon Star United has a 66% chance of winning this match, a draw stands at 17%, and Ispe FC holds a 17% chance. This calculation starts with bookmaker odds—averaging the inverse of the two sets (1.83 and 1.40 for the away win) and normalizing for the margin—then adjusts for the massive gap in team form, league positions (1st vs 11th), and Dagon Star’s perfect defensive record this season. The head-to-head is even historically, but current form overwhelmingly favors the visitors. Home advantage for Ispe FC is factored in but does little to offset the statistical disparity. The conclusion is clear: Dagon Star United are heavily favored to win.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers mirror this assessment. The available odds show Dagon Star United as the strong favorite: one bookmaker lists an away win at 1.83, another as short as 1.40. A draw is priced at 2.62 or 4.40, while an Ispe FC home victory is a long shot at 5.00 or 5.50. Based on the stats and probability analysis, the prediction favors an away victory for Dagon Star United. However, the even H2H record means the home side cannot be written off entirely—betting tips would point to the Dagon Star United win as the most likely match outcome, but the odds on the away side are short.