Garliava - Dainava Alytus prediction 2 October 2026

Our Garliava vs Dainava Alytus prediction for the 1 Lyga clash on October 2, 2026, points to an away win with a 52% probability. Dainava Alytus enters the match as the clear favorite based on overwhelming head-to-head dominance and a far superior league position, while Garliava is stuck in a five-game losing streak.

Team Form

Garliava's recent results paint a grim picture. They have lost their last five matches across all competitions:

• Sep 19: FK Kauno Zalgiris 2 3-2 Garliava (L)
• Sep 12: Garliava 2-3 BFA Vilnius (L)
• Sep 5: Ekranas Panevezio 1-0 Garliava (L)
• Aug 29: Garliava 0-1 FK Babrungas Plunge (L)
• Aug 21: Be1 NFA Kaunas 2-0 Garliava (L)

In that run they scored only 4 goals and conceded 10, showing defensive fragility and a lack of attacking threat.

Dainava Alytus, by contrast, have managed just one win in their last five outings (W1 D1 L3), but that win came in their most recent away trip:

• Sep 18: Hegelmann Litauen II 0-1 Dainava Alytus (W)
• Sep 12: Dainava Alytus 0-3 Minija Kretinga (L)
• Sep 4: Lietava Jonava 0-0 Dainava Alytus (D)
• Sep 1 (Cup): Minija Kretinga 3-2 Dainava Alytus (L)
• Aug 28: Dainava Alytus 0-1 Vilnius Zalgiris B (L)

While far from perfect, this form still outperforms Garliava's disastrous spell.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head data is entirely one-sided. The teams have met four times, and Dainava Alytus has won every single encounter:

• Jun 8, 2026: Dainava Alytus 1-0 Garliava
• Aug 5, 2022: Dainava Alytus 2-0 Garliava
• Aug 5, 2022: Dainava Alytus 2-0 Garliava
• Mar 26, 2022: Garliava 1-2 Dainava Alytus

Across these matches, Dainava Alytus scored 7 goals and conceded just 1, underlining complete superiority.

League Table Positions

In the 1 Lyga standings, Garliava is 11th with 22 points from 24 games (6 wins, 4 draws, 14 losses; goals 27:30). Dainava Alytus sits 8th with 40 points (11 wins, 7 draws, 6 losses; goals 34:23). The 18-point gap reflects a fundamental difference in consistency. Dainava Alytus possesses a positive goal difference (+11), while Garliava is negative (-3).

Win Probability: Garliava or Dainava Alytus?

Based on the evidence, the outcome probabilities are:

• Garliava win: 24%
• Draw: 24%
• Dainava Alytus win: 52%

This calculation starts from the bookmaker odds (home 2.62, draw 3.20, away 2.35), whose inverse values give implied chances of about 34%, 28%, and 38% after removing the margin. However, we adjusted heavily in favor of Dainava Alytus because of the perfect H2H record (4 wins from 4), Garliava's five consecutive defeats, and the 18-point gap in the table. Garliava's home advantage is almost completely cancelled by their dreadful form, so an away win is the clear most likely outcome.

Garliava vs Dainava Alytus Prediction

The bookmakers see Dainava Alytus as a slight favorite with odds of 2.35, while Garliava is priced at 2.62 and the draw at 3.20. Our analysis strongly supports an away win. With a 52% win probability, Dainava Alytus offers value, and the head-to-head history leaves little room for doubt. We predict Dainava Alytus will take all three points.