Decic Tuzi - Otrant Ulcinj prediction 29 October 2026

The Decic Tuzi vs Otrant Ulcinj prediction for this Montenegro 1 CFL clash on Oct 29 at 16:00 points towards a tight contest. Based on the available data, league leaders Otrant Ulcinj enter the match as slight favorites, though Decic Tuzi's strong historical dominance and home advantage balance the scales. Our win probability model gives Otrant Ulcinj a 38% chance of victory, a draw 34%, and Decic Tuzi a 28% chance.

Team Form

Decic Tuzi's recent form has been inconsistent, with their last five competitive results showing three draws and two losses (D, D, D, L, L). They have struggled to find wins, most recently falling 2-0 away to Bokelj Kotor on Oct 23 and losing 1-0 at home to Buducnost Podgorica on Oct 18.

Otrant Ulcinj, conversely, have shown more resilience. Their last five outings have produced two wins, two draws, and one loss (W, L, D, W, D). Their most recent match resulted in a 1-1 home draw against Sutjeska on Oct 24, following a 3-2 away victory at Petrovac.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors Decic Tuzi. Across 12 previous meetings, Decic Tuzi have won 8, Otrant Ulcinj have won just 1, and there have been 3 draws. The most recent league encounter took place on Aug 23, 2026, where Otrant Ulcinj suffered a heavy 0-3 home defeat to Decic Tuzi.

League Table Positions

Otrant Ulcinj are flying high at the top of the 1 CFL overall standings with 21 points from 12 matches (6 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses). Decic Tuzi sit 6th with 15 points from 11 matches (4 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses). However, home and away splits reveal a more nuanced picture. Decic Tuzi are tough to beat at home, sitting 6th in the home table with 9 points from 6 games and only 1 defeat. Otrant Ulcinj possess the best away record in the league, sitting 1st with 12 points from 6 away games (4 wins, 2 losses).

Win Probability: Decic Tuzi or Otrant Ulcinj?

After calculating implied probabilities from the bookmakers' odds and adjusting for form, head-to-head records, and home advantage, here is the final win probability breakdown:

Decic Tuzi win: 28%
Draw: 34%
Otrant Ulcinj win: 38%

Otrant Ulcinj are the most likely winner based on their league-leading position and best-in-class away form. However, Decic Tuzi's overwhelming 8-1 head-to-head record against this opponent and their solid home defensive record introduces significant doubt. This creates a high probability for a drawn result, reflecting the conflicting statistical signals.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers are offering varied 1X2 markets. One bookmaker prices a home win at 3.05, a draw at 1.95 (the shortest price, indicating it as the most likely outcome), and an away win at 3.40. Another lists Decic Tuzi at 2.35, the draw at 3.10, and Otrant Ulcinj at 2.75.

Based on the stats, the standout value appears to lie with the draw. While Otrant Ulcinj travel as league leaders, they face a Decic Tuzi side they have historically struggled against. The most probable single outcome is a draw, though a low-scoring home win cannot be ruled out given Decic Tuzi's dominant H2H record.