Jaguares de Cordoba - Deportes Tolima prediction 11 October 2026

The Jaguares de Cordoba vs Deportes Tolima prediction for the Primera A clash on Oct 11, 2026, points to an away victory. Deportes Tolima enters the match as the clear favorite with a 50% win probability, while Jaguares de Cordoba has just a 15% chance. The match kicks off at 22:05 local time at Estadio Jaraguay in Montería, with referee Carlos Díaz officiating.

Team Form

Jaguares de Cordoba are in poor shape, with three consecutive losses followed by two draws in their last five outings (L, L, L, D, D). Their most recent match ended in a 2-0 defeat away to Rionegro Aguilas on Oct 3. At home, they managed a 2-2 draw against Fortaleza Zipaquira but lost 2-1 to Alianza Petrolera.

Deportes Tolima have been draw specialists, recording four draws and one loss in their last five (D, D, D, D, L). They held Atletico Nacional Medellin to a 0-0 away draw on Oct 9 and shared points with Boyaca Chico (0-0), Fortaleza Zipaquira (2-2), and America de Cali (1-1). The only defeat came against Once Caldas (1-0) on Sep 17.

Head-to-Head Record

Historically, Deportes Tolima have dominated this fixture. In 19 previous meetings, Tolima won 9, Jaguares de Cordoba won 2, and 8 ended in draws. The last five encounters underline that trend:

• Mar 28, 2026: Deportes Tolima 3-1 Jaguares de Cordoba
• Feb 15, 2024: Deportes Tolima 2-0 Jaguares de Cordoba
• Oct 7, 2023: Jaguares de Cordoba 0-1 Deportes Tolima
• Apr 26, 2023: Deportes Tolima 1-1 Jaguares de Cordoba
• Aug 7, 2022: Deportes Tolima 2-2 Jaguares de Cordoba

Tolima have won three of those five, with two draws, and Jaguares have failed to score in three of them.

League Table Positions

Deportes Tolima sit 6th in the Primera A overall standings with 31 points from 19 matches (8 wins, 7 draws, 4 losses). They have scored 27 goals and conceded 17. Jaguares de Cordoba are outside the top 12, indicating a significant gap in quality. In the home table, Tolima rank 2nd with 23 points from 10 games, while Jaguares are not among the top 8 home sides. Tolima's away form is less impressive – they are not in the top 8 away teams – but still superior to Jaguares' overall record.

Win Probability: Jaguares de Cordoba or Deportes Tolima?

Based on the odds, team form, head-to-head record, and league positions, the calculated win probabilities are:

• Jaguares de Cordoba win: 15%
• Draw: 35%
• Deportes Tolima win: 50%

The odds imply a Tolima victory around 43.5% and a draw at 36.9%, but Tolima's superior H2H dominance and much higher league standing push their chance to an even 50%. Jaguares' terrible form (three losses in five) and low table position justify the low 15% probability. A draw remains a strong possibility given Tolima's recent string of stalemates.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Deportes Tolima as the favorite. The best available odds at the time of writing are around 4.50 for a Jaguares de Cordoba home win, 2.10 for the draw, and 2.25 for an away win. Some bookies even offer Tolima as low as 1.77, reflecting their confidence in the visitors.

Match prediction: Based on the stats, Deportes Tolima are the more likely winners. However, their habit of drawing matches (four in the last five) means a stalemate cannot be ruled out. Jaguares de Cordoba will need a drastic improvement to get anything from this game.