Deportivo Cali - Alianza Petrolera prediction 3 October 2026

The Deportivo Cali vs Alianza Petrolera prediction for Oct 3, 2026, in the Colombian Primera A points strongly towards a home victory. Based on the latest odds and team stats, Deportivo Cali has a 55% win probability, while Alianza Petrolera trails at 17% — the draw sits at 28%.

Team Form

Deportivo Cali’s last five outings read W, W, W, D, L. They beat Independiente Santa Fe 1-0 away, crushed Cucuta Deportivo 3-0 at home, and won 2-1 at Once Caldas, before a 1-1 draw at Club Deportivo Los Millonarios and a 3-0 cup loss at Atletico Nacional Medellin. That’s three wins in the last four league matches.

Alianza Petrolera’s form line is L, W, W, L, L. A heavy 1-4 home loss to Santa Fe was followed by a 2-1 away win at Boyaca Chico and a 1-0 home success against CD Junior FC, then a cup defeat at Once Caldas (1-0) and a 3-0 league loss at America de Cali. Two wins in five, both against mid‑table sides, show inconsistency.

Head-to-Head Record

In 29 previous meetings, Alianza Petrolera holds the edge with 12 wins to Deportivo Cali’s 8, alongside 9 draws. The most recent five clashes give Alianza three wins, one draw and only one Cali victory: a 1-0 Cali home win in the Cup (May 2026) was surrounded by Alianza wins in the league (1-0, 2-0) and a 3-3 draw in January 2024. Alianza has historically troubled Cali, though Cali’s current home strength could flip that trend.

League Table Positions

Deportivo Cali sits 9th in the Primera A overall standings with 27 points from 19 matches (7 wins, 6 draws, 6 losses). At home they are even stronger — 8th in the home table with 10 matches yielding 5 wins, 4 draws and just 1 loss, scoring 12 and conceding only 6. Alianza Petrolera does not appear in the top 12 overall or in the top 8 away standings, indicating they are positioned lower in the league with a notably weaker away record.

Win Probability: Deportivo Cali or Alianza Petrolera?

Deportivo Cali has a 55% chance of winning, the draw is at 28%, and Alianza Petrolera has a 17% chance. This calculation uses the bookmaker odds as a base (implied probabilities around 52%‑35%‑13% after removing margins) and adjusts for form and home advantage. Cali’s 5‑4‑1 home record, coupled with Alianza’s absence from the away top‑8 and their fragile recent away results, lifts the home win probability. Alianza’s strong H2H record prevents the away win from being completely dismissed, but the statistical weight clearly favours the home side.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers have Deportivo Cali as the strong favourite — typical 1X2 odds show a home win at 1.55, a draw at 2.12, and an Alianza Petrolera away win at 5.40 (the first odds set). Across the market, home odds range from 1.45 to 1.55, draws from 2.12 to 3.40, and away wins from 5.25 to 6.00. Based on all available data — Cali’s solid home defence, Alianza’s away struggles, and the probability model — the prediction is a home win for Deportivo Cali, though a low‑scoring draw cannot be ruled out.