Orense SC - Deportivo Cuenca prediction 11 October 2026

The Orense SC vs Deportivo Cuenca prediction for August 16, 2026, points to a tight Serie A clash at Estadio 9 de Mayo. Based on the latest odds, form, and head-to-head record, Orense SC enters as the favorite with a 40% win probability, while a draw stands at 38% and Deportivo Cuenca has a 22% chance of victory.

Team Form

Orense SC's recent form has been inconsistent. In their last five matches, they recorded one win, one draw, and three losses:

• Delfin SC 1–1 Orense SC (Aug 09) – Draw
• Libertad Loja 3–0 Orense SC (Aug 01) – Loss
• Orense SC 2–3 Independiente Del Valle (Jul 26) – Loss
• Orense SC 2–1 SD Aucas Quito (Jul 23) – Win
• Mushuc Runa 2–1 Orense SC (Jul 20) – Loss

Deportivo Cuenca has also struggled, with just one win in their last five outings:

• Deportivo Cuenca 1–2 Manta FC (Aug 11) – Loss
• Independiente Del Valle 1–0 Deportivo Cuenca (Aug 02) – Loss
• Deportivo Cuenca 2–1 Emelec (Jul 28) – Win
• Macara 3–0 Deportivo Cuenca (Jul 22) – Loss
• Deportivo Cuenca 0–2 Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (Jul 18) – Loss

Head-to-Head Record

In 12 previous meetings, Orense SC holds the advantage with 4 wins, 6 draws, and only 2 defeats. The last five encounters show Orense SC's edge:

• Apr 22, 2026: Deportivo Cuenca 1–3 Orense SC
• Aug 31, 2025: Deportivo Cuenca 1–1 Orense SC
• May 10, 2025: Orense SC 1–0 Deportivo Cuenca
• Mar 10, 2024: Orense SC 1–1 Deportivo Cuenca
• Sep 03, 2023: Deportivo Cuenca 1–0 Orense SC

Orense SC has won two, drawn two, and lost one of the last five, including a 3-1 away victory in the most recent clash.

League Table Positions

Deportivo Cuenca sits 10th in the Serie A overall standings with 31 points from 24 matches (9 wins, 4 draws, 11 losses). Their away form is relatively solid: they rank 5th in the away table with 5 wins, 1 draw, and 6 losses, scoring 8 goals and conceding 13. Orense SC is not present in the top 12 of the overall table, indicating a lower league position. Their home record is also absent from the top 8 home standings, suggesting they have struggled at Estadio 9 de Mayo this season.

Win Probability: Orense SC or Deportivo Cuenca?

After analyzing all available data, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Orense SC 40%, Draw 38%, Deportivo Cuenca 22%. Bookmakers' average odds (home 1.93, draw 2.24, away 3.93) imply a home win probability of about 42.5% after removing the margin. However, both teams' poor recent form and Deportivo Cuenca's higher league position reduce Orense's edge. The head-to-head record and home advantage still tilt the balance toward Orense, but a draw is a very realistic outcome. Therefore, Orense SC is the more likely winner, but the match is far from a sure thing.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers have priced Orense SC as the favorite, with average odds around 1.93 for a home win. The draw is offered at approximately 2.24, while an away win for Deportivo Cuenca pays about 3.93. These odds reflect the home team's historical dominance in this fixture and the venue factor. Our prediction: based on the stats, Orense SC has the best chance to win, but given the high draw probability, a bet on the double chance (1X) or a draw no bet could be safer options. Expect a low-scoring affair, as both sides have struggled to find the net consistently.