Guastatoya - Deportivo Mixco prediction 25 October 2026

The Guastatoya vs Deportivo Mixco prediction for this Liga Nacional match on October 24, 2026, at 23:00 leans toward the home side. Based on our win probability analysis, Guastatoya holds a decisive advantage with a 54% chance of winning, while Deportivo Mixco trails at 19%. The possibility of a draw sits at 27%.

Team Form

Guastatoya enters the match with a mixed run of results, recording two draws, one loss, and two wins in their last five outings (D, D, L, W, W). Their most recent fixture ended in a 1–1 draw away at CSD Municipal on October 19. At home, they have been stronger, securing back-to-back 2–1 victories against Aurora FC and Deportivo San Pedro, which suggests a solid base to build on.

Deportivo Mixco's recent form shows one win, two draws, and one loss in their last four tracked matches (W, D, D, W, L). They claimed a convincing 3–1 home win over Coban Imperial on October 18. However, away from home, they have struggled for consistency, drawing 1–1 at Marquense and 3–3 at Suchitepequez, before falling 1–0 at Malacateco.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these two sides is perfectly balanced over the last five meetings. Both Guastatoya and Deportivo Mixco have won two each, with one match ending in a draw. Notably, the most recent clash on August 23, 2026, saw Deportivo Mixco thrash Guastatoya 4–2 at home. Prior to that, Guastatoya held the upper hand with two consecutive 1–0 and 2–0 victories. The total H2H record across all listed matches stands at 4 wins for Guastatoya, 4 wins for Deportivo Mixco, and 1 draw, highlighting how evenly contested this fixture is.

League Table Positions

League table positions are not explicitly provided in the available data. Judging by recent home and away performances, both teams appear to be in mid-table contention in the Liga Nacional, with Guastatoya showing slightly better home resilience and Deportivo Mixco demonstrating the ability to score goals on the road, but also defensive vulnerabilities.

Win Probability: Guastatoya or Deportivo Mixco?

Our calculated win probability for the match is: Guastatoya win: 54%, Draw: 27%, Deportivo Mixco win: 19%.

We derived these percentages by starting with the bookmaker odds, where the best available home win is priced at 2.35 and the draw as low as 2.05. After normalizing the implied probabilities to remove the bookmaker margin, the draw and home win carry the highest likelihood. Adjustments were made based on Guastatoya's recent home form (back-to-back wins) and Deportivo Mixco's inconsistent away results, which have included high-scoring draws but also a loss. The head-to-head balance prevents a wider gap, but the current momentum and home advantage firmly point toward Guastatoya as the side more likely to win.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see this as a tight contest with a bias toward the home side and a draw. The best available odds show Guastatoya at 2.35 to win, the draw at a very short 2.05, and a Deportivo Mixco victory at a high 4.55. The low draw price indicates a market expectation of a cagey affair. Based on the stats, the most likely outcome is a narrow win for Guastatoya. However, with the draw price so low and the last meeting ending in a 4–2 away win for Deportivo Mixco, betting tips suggest the 'Double Chance 1X' or a home win carries the most statistical value.