Chivas Alamos - Deportivo Muxes prediction 2 October 2026

The Chivas Alamos vs Deportivo Muxes prediction for October 2, 2026, in Mexico's Liga TDP points to a very evenly matched contest. Based on our win probability analysis, Chivas Alamos has a 35% chance of winning, the draw stands at 30%, and Deportivo Muxes also holds a 35% chance. The match kicks off at 23:00 local time, and while bookmakers have installed the home side as the nominal favorite, the head-to-head record tells a different story.

Team Form

Chivas Alamos come into this fixture with a mixed recent record. Their last five matches read W, L, L, L, W. The most recent outing was a 2-1 home victory over Around Soccer on September 18, but that followed a heavy 4-1 defeat at Alebrijes CDMX. Earlier in April, they lost back-to-back games against Delfines UGM (0-1 and 0-1) before beating Club Union Melchor Ocampo 3-1. Overall, they have managed only two wins in five, scoring 6 goals and conceding 8.

Deportivo Muxes have been slightly more consistent, with a form line of W, L, L, W, W. They won their last match 3-2 away at Around Soccer on September 25, showing good resilience. Before that, they suffered a 0-2 home loss to CD Mexiquense and a 0-1 defeat to Deportivo Delfines de Coatzacoalcos. However, they closed out April with consecutive 2-0 home wins over Orishas Tepeji and PDLA FC. In their last five, they have scored 7 goals and conceded 5.

Head-to-Head Record

The historical record heavily favors Deportivo Muxes. In five previous meetings, Chivas Alamos have never won, with Deportivo Muxes claiming four victories and one match ending in a draw. The most recent encounter was on April 26, 2025, when Deportivo Muxes won 2-0 at home. The only draw came back in March 2022 (0-0). Notably, Deportivo Muxes have kept clean sheets in three of those five matches, including a 3-0 away win in April 2023. This head-to-head dominance is a key factor in our Chivas Alamos vs Deportivo Muxes prediction.

Win Probability: Chivas Alamos or Deportivo Muxes?

We calculate the win probabilities by starting with the implied odds from bookmakers (home 2.20, draw 2.60, away 3.50). The inverse odds give raw percentages of 40.4% (home), 34.2% (draw), and 25.4% (away). After normalizing to remove the margin, the baseline is roughly 40% for Chivas Alamos, 34% for the draw, and 26% for Deportivo Muxes. However, we adjust these figures based on team form and the overwhelming head-to-head record. Deportivo Muxes have won four of five H2H meetings, including both away games, and their recent form (three wins in five) is slightly better than the home side's. Therefore, we shift probability toward the visitors. Our final assessment: Chivas Alamos 35%, draw 30%, Deportivo Muxes 35%. This match is too close to call a clear favorite, but Deportivo Muxes appear undervalued by the betting market.

Odds & Match Prediction

The available 1X2 odds are: home win 2.20, draw 2.60, away win 3.50. Bookmakers see Chivas Alamos as the most likely winner, but the odds imply only a 40% chance, leaving plenty of room for an upset. Given the head-to-head stats and the visitors' ability to win on the road, the value may lie with Deportivo Muxes or the draw. Our prediction: based on the stats, Deportivo Muxes have a strong chance to avoid defeat. A draw or a narrow away win are the most probable outcomes. For betting tips, the double chance X2 (draw or away win) could be an interesting option.