Deportivo Pasto - Alianza Petrolera prediction 20 October 2026

Our Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Petrolera prediction for the Primera A clash on October 20, 2026 at Departamental Libertad in Pasto points to a home advantage. Based on combined odds, recent form, and head-to-head stats, Deportivo Pasto holds around a 50% win probability, with a 30% chance of a draw and Alianza Petrolera at 20%.

Team Form

Deportivo Pasto enter the match with a mixed but steady run. Their last five games read: 0-0 draw at Atletico Nacional Medellin, 0-0 home draw against Fortaleza Zipaquira, a 3-0 loss at Boyaca Chico, a 1-0 home win over Once Caldas, and a 1-0 win at America de Cali. That’s two wins, two draws, one loss – a pattern that suggests resilience, especially at home where they’ve kept clean sheets in two of the last three.

Alianza Petrolera’s last five are similarly up and down: 2-2 home draw with Rionegro Aguilas, a 3-1 away loss to Deportivo Cali, a 2-1 win at Jaguares de Cordoba, a 1-4 home loss to Independiente Santa Fe, and a 2-1 win at Boyaca Chico. The away form is patchy, with only two wins in the last five outings and some heavy defeats.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall H2H record favours Deportivo Pasto: 13 wins to Alianza Petrolera’s 6, with 8 draws in 27 meetings. However, recent contests tell a different story. The last five encounters have seen four draws and one Alianza win – including a 0-0, a thrilling 3-3, a 1-0 Alianza win, and two 1-1 stalemates. Deportivo Pasto haven’t beaten Alianza in the last five tries, making this a potential banana skin for the home side.

League Table Positions

Deportivo Pasto sit 3rd overall in Primera A with 34 points from 19 matches (10 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses). At home, they are 6th with 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses in 10 games, scoring 14 and conceding only 8 – a solid home record. Alianza Petrolera are outside the top 12 in the overall standings, and their away numbers don’t feature in the top 8, indicating a clear disparity in both league position and home/away strength.

Win Probability: Deportivo Pasto or Alianza Petrolera?

We calculate Deportivo Pasto’s win probability at 50%, the draw at 30%, and Alianza Petrolera’s chance at 20%. These percentages are derived from the average bookmaker odds (implied probabilities of 48% home, 35% draw, 17% away), then adjusted upward for the home side thanks to their strong home record and superior league standing. The high draw probability reflects the recent H2H trend – four draws in five. Alianza’s away form and lower table position keep them as clear underdogs despite their recent edge in the fixture.

Odds & Match Prediction

The average odds from multiple bookmakers show Deportivo Pasto as the favourite: home win priced around 1.70 to 1.78, the draw at 2.10 to 3.63, and an away win between 4.60 and 5.35. Bookmakers see the hosts as likely winners, but the wide draw quotes suggest some uncertainty. Based on the stats, form, and H2H, the most likely outcome is a narrow home win, but a draw cannot be ruled out. Our final match prediction: Deportivo Pasto to win, with a high chance of under 2.5 total goals given both teams’ recent low-scoring patterns.