Atletico Bucaramanga - Deportivo Pasto prediction 31 October 2026

Atletico Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pasto prediction for the Primera A match on Aug 17, 2026, at 21:05. Based on recent form, head-to-head record, and league positions, Atletico Bucaramanga has a 50% chance of winning, a draw is estimated at 30%, and Deportivo Pasto has a 20% win probability.

Team Form

Atletico Bucaramanga comes into this match with solid recent league results. In their last five outings across all competitions, they recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss. Notably, their last four Primera A matches were unbeaten: a 3-2 away win against Alianza Petrolera, a 1-1 home draw with Cucuta Deportivo, another 1-1 home draw with Llaneros FC, and a 1-0 away victory over Club Deportivo Los Millonarios. The only defeat in this stretch was a 1-2 home cup loss to Alianza Petrolera.

Deportivo Pasto is struggling badly. Their last five matches in all competitions show four losses and just one win. The win came in the Cup against Bogota FC (0-3 away), but league form is alarming: four consecutive Primera A defeats – 0-2 at home to Deportivo Cali, 0-2 away at Club Deportivo Los Millonarios, 1-2 at home to Rionegro Aguilas, and a 2-3 loss at EDP Independiente Medellin.

Head-to-Head Record

In the overall history of this fixture, home teams have won 13 times, with 8 draws and 6 away wins. The last five meetings between Atletico Bucaramanga and Deportivo Pasto show a slight edge for the home side: Atletico Bucaramanga won twice (2-1 at home in May 2025, 2-1 away in October 2024), there were two draws (0-0 both, one at each ground), and Deportivo Pasto won 3-0 at home in November 2025. At Estadio Alfonso López, Bucaramanga is unbeaten in the last two H2H matches (1 win, 1 draw).

League Table Positions

Deportivo Pasto sits 3rd in the overall Primera A standings with 10 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses, and 34 points from 19 matches. Atletico Bucaramanga is not among the top 12 listed teams, indicating a lower position. However, home/away splits reveal a more balanced picture: Deportivo Pasto’s away form is decent (3rd in away table, 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses in 9 games), while Atletico Bucaramanga’s home form is not reflected in the top 8 home table. The gap in overall points suggests Deportivo Pasto is the stronger side on paper, but current momentum tells a different story.

Win Probability: Atletico Bucaramanga or Deportivo Pasto?

We estimate Atletico Bucaramanga has a 50% chance of winning, the draw is at 30%, and Deportivo Pasto has a 20% chance. These probabilities are derived from the teams’ recent form, head-to-head trends, and the home advantage at Estadio Alfonso López. Bucaramanga’s four-match unbeaten league run contrasts sharply with Pasto’s four consecutive league losses. The H2H record at this venue also favours the hosts, who have not lost at home to Pasto in the last two meetings. While Pasto’s higher overall league position gives them a theoretical edge, their current form is so poor that it heavily reduces their chances.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmaker odds for this fixture are currently unavailable. However, based on the statistical analysis, Atletico Bucaramanga emerges as the more likely winner. Deportivo Pasto’s dreadful run of league defeats makes it hard to back them, even with their strong away record earlier in the season. Our prediction is a home win, but a draw cannot be ruled out given Bucaramanga’s tendency to share points at home. The most probable outcome is Atletico Bucaramanga to win, with under 2.5 total goals a possible angle given the recent H2H low-scoring pattern.