Deportivo Pasto - Fortaleza Zipaquira prediction 4 October 2026

The Deportivo Pasto vs Fortaleza Zipaquira prediction points towards a home victory when the two sides meet on Oct 4 at 20:00 in Colombia's Primera A. Based on the available data, Deportivo Pasto has a 55% chance of winning, the draw is at 25%, and Fortaleza Zipaquira has a 20% chance.

Team Form

Deportivo Pasto's recent form has been mixed, with results reading L, W, W, L, D in their last five outings. At home, they have been solid, winning 6 of their 10 matches at Departamental Libertad, scoring 14 and conceding only 8. Their most recent home fixture was a 1-0 victory against Once Caldas on Sep 20.

Fortaleza Zipaquira are struggling for consistency, with a form line of D, L, D, D, L. They have failed to win any of their last five matches, drawing three and losing two. Their last away game ended in a 2-2 draw at Jaguares de Cordoba on Sep 12.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors Deportivo Pasto, who have won 3 of the 4 previous encounters. Fortaleza Zipaquira have managed just 1 win, with no draws between the teams. The most recent meeting on Mar 25, 2026, saw Deportivo Pasto secure a 2-1 away victory. When playing at home, Deportivo Pasto have won both matches against Fortaleza Zipaquira, with identical 1-0 scorelines in May 2025 and March 2024.

League Table Positions

Deportivo Pasto sit 3rd in the overall Primera A standings with 34 points from 19 matches, having won 10, drawn 4, and lost 5. Their home form is particularly strong, ranking 6th with 20 points from 10 games. Fortaleza Zipaquira are not listed in the top 12 of the overall, home, or away standings, indicating they are significantly lower in the table. The gap in league positions reinforces the home side's status as the clear favorite.

Win Probability: Deportivo Pasto or Fortaleza Zipaquira?

Calculating the win probability based on odds, form, and head-to-head record, Deportivo Pasto has a 55% chance of winning, the draw is at 25%, and Fortaleza Zipaquira has a 20% chance. The inverse of the best available odds (1.95 for a home win, 3.30 for a draw, 4.00 for an away win) was normalized to remove the bookmaker margin, then adjusted upwards for Deportivo Pasto due to their superior league position, dominant H2H record, and strong home form. Fortaleza Zipaquira's poor recent results and lower table standing reduce their likelihood of an upset.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Deportivo Pasto as the favorite, with the best home win odds at 1.95. The draw is priced around 3.30, while an away win for Fortaleza Zipaquira can be found at 4.00. Based on the stats, a home win is the most likely outcome. The head-to-head history of low-scoring games at this venue also suggests a tight match, but Deportivo Pasto's quality should see them edge it.