Sportivo San Lorenzo Reserves - Deportivo Recoleta Reserves prediction 29 September 2026

Our Sportivo San Lorenzo Reserves vs Deportivo Recoleta Reserves prediction for this Reserve League match on Sep 29 at 20:00 points to a strong away favorite. Based on the odds and recent form, Deportivo Recoleta Reserves has a 65% chance of winning, a draw sits at 22%, and Sportivo San Lorenzo Reserves has a 13% chance.

Team Form

Sportivo San Lorenzo Reserves come into this match in poor shape, having lost four of their last five matches (L, L, L, W, L). Their most recent outing was a 2-4 home defeat against Olimpia Asuncion Reserves on Sep 21. The only win in this sequence was a 4-1 away victory at Rubio Nu Reserves on Sep 2.

Deportivo Recoleta Reserves are also struggling, with four losses and one draw in their last five (L, D, L, L, L). They lost 2-0 away to Sportivo Luqueno Reserves on Sep 21. Their only point came from a 0-0 home draw with Sportivo Trinidense Reserves on Sep 11.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last three meetings, Deportivo Recoleta Reserves hold the edge with 2 wins to Sportivo San Lorenzo Reserves' 1. There have been no draws. The most recent clash on Jul 24 saw Deportivo Recoleta Reserves win 4-1 at home. Earlier in the year, on Apr 6, they also won 3-1. Sportivo San Lorenzo Reserves' sole win was a 2-1 home victory on Feb 7.

League Table Positions

League table data is not available in the provided statistics. However, the form guide and head-to-head record suggest Deportivo Recoleta Reserves have had the upper hand in recent encounters despite both teams showing inconsistent results.

Win Probability: Sportivo San Lorenzo Reserves or Deportivo Recoleta Reserves?

Based on the odds, form, and head-to-head record, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Deportivo Recoleta Reserves has a 65% chance of winning, the draw is at 22%, and Sportivo San Lorenzo Reserves has a 13% chance. The odds heavily favor the away side, with the best available price for a Deportivo Recoleta Reserves win being 1.21. After normalizing the inverse odds to remove the bookmaker margin, the raw probability for an away win is very high. We have slightly adjusted this downward from the pure odds-based probability due to Deportivo Recoleta Reserves' recent poor form, but their dominant head-to-head record and the home side's even worse results confirm they are the clear favorite.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Deportivo Recoleta Reserves as the strong favorite. The best available odds for an away win are 1.21, while a home win for Sportivo San Lorenzo Reserves is priced as high as 10.09. The draw is available at 6.56. Based on the stats, the most likely outcome is an away win for Deportivo Recoleta Reserves. Their recent H2H dominance, including a 4-1 win in July, outweighs the concerns from their current losing streak, especially against a Sportivo San Lorenzo Reserves side that has lost four of their last five.