Derry City Women - Larne Women prediction 25 September 2026

The Derry City Women vs Larne Women prediction for this Premier League Women match on Sep 25, 2026 points towards a home victory. Kick-off is at 19:45 local time, and based on the overwhelming head-to-head history and the teams' current form, Derry City Women have a 70% chance of winning, the draw is at 20%, and Larne Women sit at just a 10% win probability.

Team Form

Derry City Women's last five matches show a mixed bag: a 3-3 home draw with Lisburn LFC Women (Sep 18), a 0-4 home loss to Cliftonville Women, a 1-0 home victory over Lisburn LFC Women, a 1-2 home defeat against Linfield Women, and a 0-3 home loss to Lisburn Rangers Women. That sequence translates to D-L-W-L-L – one win, one draw, and three defeats. Goals scored in those five fixtures: 5, conceded: 12, indicating defensive issues but also a flash of the attacking threat that produced seven goals in the last meeting with Larne.

Larne Women's recent outings are even more concerning. Their last five results read L-L-L-D-L, starting with a 2-3 away loss at Crusaders Strikers Women, a 0-3 away defeat to the same opponent, the 7-0 demolition by Derry City Women, a 2-2 draw at Sion Swifts Women (Championship Women), and a 1-2 home reverse against Lisburn LFC Women. Across these games, Larne scored only 5 times and conceded 17, underlining a fragile backline that has consistently struggled on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head numbers are starkly one-sided. In the six meetings preserved in the data, Derry City Women have won 5, drawn 0, and lost just once to Larne Women. The most recent clash (Jul 24, 2026) ended 7-0 to Derry City Women, with three other matches also producing comfortable wins: 4-0 at home, 1-0 at home, and two away triumphs (4-0 and 2-1). Larne Women's sole victory came in a much earlier contest, leaving Derry City Women with a dominant psychological edge and a clear template for securing three points.

League Table Positions

In the Premier League Women standings, Derry City Women occupy 5th place with 6 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses, goals for 10, goals against 12). Larne Women are bottom in 7th with 2 points having played the same number of games (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses, goals for 4, goals against 23). The gap already stretches to 4 points, while Larne's goal difference of -19 is the poorest in the division. Notably, Derry City Women have a stronger away record (2 wins, 3 losses, 10 goals scored away from home) than Larne Women's away form (0 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, 1 goal for, 6 against), so even with limited home data available for Derry, the form guide strongly favours the hosts.

Win Probability: Derry City Women or Larne Women?

We calculate the outcome percentages as follows: Derry City Women win – 70%, Draw – 20%, Larne Women win – 10%.

These probabilities are derived by blending the inverse of any missing odds with the available stats. The head-to-head record (5 Derry wins out of 6) and the crushing 7-0 scoreline in July give Derry an overwhelming base chance. Derry's recent draw and occasional wins show they can produce results, while Larne's run of four losses and one draw in their last five indicates severe lack of quality. Home advantage for Derry City Women further tilts the balance, even though the standings show no home games yet – they will enjoy familiar surroundings.

Derry City Women's slightly better attacking output (10 goals vs 4) and more respectable defensive numbers (12 conceded vs 23) support the conclusion that the hosts are far more likely to come out on top. A draw remains a realistic second outcome, but the chances of Larne Women causing an upset are minimal given the head-to-head dominance and the 2026 form lines.

Odds & Match Prediction

No fixed odds are currently available for this fixture. Our prediction is therefore based strictly on the statistical evidence: Derry City Women should win, with a comfortable margin possible. The last meeting produced seven goals, but considering both teams' recent scoring struggles (Derry's 0-3, 1-2, 0-4 losses) a more measured home victory is likely. The most probable match outcome is a Derry City Women win, with under 3.5 total goals being a sensible side bet. Larne Women's best hope is to contain early pressure and cling to a draw, but the formbook and head-to-head record make that a tall order.