Dinamo Tbilisi - Gagra prediction 14 September 2026

The Dinamo Tbilisi vs Gagra prediction for this Erovnuli match on September 14, 2026, gives the home side a 45% win probability. Kick-off is at 17:00 at the Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena in Tbilisi, and based on the odds and recent form, a tight contest is expected despite the home favorite tag.

Team Form

Dinamo Tbilisi come into this fixture with two wins, two draws, and one defeat in their last five league outings. They drew 0-0 at home to Mesakhte Tkibuli and 1-1 away at Torpedo Kutaisi, beat FC Dila Gori 2-1, then suffered a heavy 0-3 home loss to Metalurgi Rustavi, before winning 2-1 at Spaeri. The home form is not convincing: only three wins in the last ten competitive home games, with just one clean sheet in that run.

Gagra’s recent results are similarly mixed: a 1-1 home draw with Torpedo Kutaisi, a 0-1 away loss to FC Dila Gori, a 2-0 home win over FC Iberia 1999, a 0-0 cup draw with Aragvi Dusheti, and a 0-3 defeat at Metalurgi Rustavi. Their away league record remains poor – three wins, four draws, and five losses in 12 road trips, scoring only 10 goals.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall H2H record heavily favors Gagra. In the last eight meetings, Dinamo Tbilisi have won just once, with two draws and five wins for Gagra. Looking at the most recent encounters:

• 14 Jun 2026 – Gagra 2-1 Dinamo Tbilisi
• 21 Apr 2026 – Dinamo Tbilisi 0-1 Gagra
• 21 Nov 2025 – Dinamo Tbilisi 2-4 Gagra
• 13 Sep 2025 – Dinamo Tbilisi 0-1 Gagra
• 16 May 2025 – Dinamo Tbilisi 1-1 Gagra

At the Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena, Dinamo have lost three of their last four home meetings to Gagra, which adds real weight to the possibility of an upset.

League Table Positions

Dinamo Tbilisi sit 3rd in the Erovnuli with 39 points from 24 matches (10 wins, 9 draws, 5 losses; 36 goals scored, 27 conceded). Gagra are 8th with 28 points from 25 matches (6 wins, 10 draws, 9 losses; 24 goals for, 32 against). At home, Dinamo Tbilisi have only the 5th-best record (5W, 4D, 4L), while Gagra’s away form ranks 8th (3W, 4D, 5L). The points gap and goal difference underline the host’s superiority this campaign, but the table does not reflect the lopsided H2H history.

Win Probability: Dinamo Tbilisi or Gagra?

Removing the bookmaker margin from the available odds gives Dinamo Tbilisi a baseline win probability of 48.4%, the draw 35.7%, and Gagra 15.9%. However, adjusting for the dominant H2H record and Dinamo’s recent home woes against this opponent, Gagra’s chances rise. The final assessment sets the probabilities at:

• Dinamo Tbilisi win – 45%
• Draw – 35%
• Gagra win – 20%

Dinamo Tbilisi remain the more likely winner, but a draw is almost as probable as a home victory, and Gagra cannot be dismissed.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers’ 1X2 odds range from 1.60 to 1.65 for a Dinamo Tbilisi win, 2.15 to 2.25 for the draw, and 4.50 to 5.50 for a Gagra away win. The market clearly sees the home side as the favorite. However, given the H2H data and both teams’ inconsistent form, a low-scoring affair with a significant chance of an away result looks likely. Our football betting tips for this match lean toward the draw or a narrow Dinamo Tbilisi win, but backing the double chance on X2 could offer better value based on the stats.