Dinaz Vishgorod - Yarud Mariupol prediction 20 August 2026

Our Dinaz Vishgorod vs Yarud Mariupol prediction for the Cup match on Aug 20, 2026, at 09:00 UTC, points to an away win. Yarud Mariupol enters the contest as the clear favorite with a 65% win probability, while Dinaz Vishgorod has just a 10% chance of victory. The draw is rated at 25%.

Team Form

Dinaz Vishgorod have failed to win any of their last five matches (L, D, L, L, D). A 2-6 home loss to Rukh Lviv on Aug 15 and a 2-2 draw at Skala Stryi highlight their defensive struggles. They have conceded 17 goals in those five outings.

Yarud Mariupol have recorded two wins in their last five (W, L, L, L, W). A 3-1 home victory over FC Kolos Kovalivka 2 on Aug 16 ended a three-game losing streak. Their away form remains a concern, with back-to-back defeats before that win.

Head-to-Head Record

These sides have met five times, with Yarud Mariupol winning four and Dinaz Vishgorod one. No draws have occurred. The most recent clash on Oct 20, 2024, ended 3-0 to Yarud Mariupol. Dinaz Vishgorod’s last win came on Oct 8, 2022 (0-2 away). Yarud Mariupol have won the last four encounters by an aggregate score of 11-2.

Win Probability: Dinaz Vishgorod or Yarud Mariupol?

Based on the odds, head-to-head dominance, and recent form, we calculate the following outcome probabilities:

• Dinaz Vishgorod win: 10%
• Draw: 25%
• Yarud Mariupol win: 65%

The bookmakers’ average implied probability gave Yarud Mariupol a 60.3% chance, but the H2H record (4 wins in 5) and Dinaz Vishgorod’s winless run push the away win probability even higher. Home advantage has not translated into results for Dinaz, making an away victory the most likely outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers heavily favor Yarud Mariupol. The best available away win odds range from 1.28 to 1.71, while a home win can be backed at 6.50 to 9.33. The draw is priced between 2.50 and 5.55. These odds reflect the gulf in quality and recent head-to-head results.

Dinaz Vishgorod vs Yarud Mariupol prediction: Based on the stats, Yarud Mariupol are expected to win. The value may lie in the away win, but the odds are short. A correct score or handicap bet could offer better returns for those confident in another comfortable Yarud victory.