Hammarby IF - Djurgardens IF prediction 11 October 2026

The Hammarby IF vs Djurgardens IF prediction for Oct 11, 2026, in the Allsvenskan sees the home side as clear favorite with a 46% win probability according to our data analysis. The match kicks off at 13:00 at Stockholm’s 3Arena, and bookmakers have Hammarby IF priced around 2.15 to win.

Team Form

Hammarby IF enters this derby in strong shape. Their last five results across all competitions read W, W, D, L, W. On September 20 they won 1-0 at Degerfors IF, then crushed Brommapojkarna 3-1 at home, drew 1-1 at Orgryte, lost a thriller 3-2 at AIK, and most recently beat Stockholm Internazionale 3-0 in the Cup on August 26. The overall pattern is three wins, one draw and one defeat, with 10 goals scored in those five matches.

Djurgardens IF’s five-match form is equally eye-catching: W, L, W, W, W. Their last outing was a 1-0 friendly win at VfL Osnabruck on October 3. Before that they lost 1-2 at home to Elfsborg, beat GAIS Goteborg 2-0, smashed IFK Haninge 7-1 in the Cup, and won 1-0 at Kalmar FF. Four wins from five and 12 goals netted show they carry serious threat, though the home loss to Elfsborg exposed some vulnerability away from familiar surroundings.

Head-to-Head Record

The all-time H2H record heavily favours Hammarby IF: 14 wins, 12 draws and only 7 wins for Djurgardens IF. In the last five meetings, Hammarby IF is unbeaten. The most recent clash on April 26, 2026, ended 1-1 at Djurgardens. Before that Hammarby won 1-0 at home in the Cup (March 15, 2026), drew 3-3 away (September 2025) and recorded two 2-0 home wins in the Allsvenskan in 2025 and 2024. Djurgardens IF has not beaten Hammarby IF since 2021 – a telling statistic when predicting this fixture.

League Table Positions

Two of the top three teams in the Allsvenskan standings collide. Hammarby IF sit 2nd with 13 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses, 49 goals for and only 20 against – 43 points. Djurgardens IF are just behind in 3rd with 13 wins, 2 draws, 7 losses, 47:21 goals – 41 points. The league table shows a cluster at the top, but the home/away splits are stark. Hammarby IF boast the best home record in the division: 9 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, 34 goals scored and just 6 conceded in 11 matches. Djurgardens IF have the second-best away record: 7 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, 17 scored, 7 conceded in 10 road trips. This sets up a contest between the strongest home force and one of the hardest away sides to beat.

Win Probability: Hammarby IF or Djurgardens IF?

Based on the odds, team form, head-to-head record, league table positions and home/away factor, our calculated win probabilities are:

• Hammarby IF: 46%
• Draw: 32%
• Djurgardens IF: 22%

The odds implied a base probability of 40.7% for a home win, 35.7% for a draw and 23.6% for an away win (using the 2.15–2.45–3.70 line). We adjusted these numbers upward for the home side due to their near-perfect home record, dominant recent H2H results and the fact that Djurgardens IF’s only recent league loss came at home. A draw remains a significant possibility, but Hammarby IF emerges as the most likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

Pre-match odds from various bookmakers show a clear home bias. One set quotes Hammarby IF at 2.15, the draw at 2.45 and a Djurgardens IF away win at 3.70. Others range from 1.67 to 2.02 for the home side, reflecting strong market confidence in Hammarby IF. When you consider the stats – Hammarby’s unrivalled home record, the head-to-head dominance and only two points separating the sides overall – the value may lie with the home win. Our prediction is that Hammarby IF will get the job done, most likely by a narrow margin, with a high chance of over 2.5 total goals given both teams’ attacking numbers.