Dragones Toluca II - Ajolotes Lerma FC prediction 22 September 2026

Our Dragones Toluca II vs Ajolotes Lerma FC prediction for this Liga TDP match on Sep 22 at 17:00 sees Ajolotes Lerma FC as the favorite with a 50% win probability. Dragones Toluca II have a 30% chance of winning, while the draw is at 20%. Bookmakers also favor the away side based on the latest odds.

Team Form

Dragones Toluca II come into this match in poor form. Their last five results show four losses and just one win (L, L, L, W, L). The most recent outing was a 5-2 defeat away to CF Pachuca 3 on May 9. The only positive result in that run was a 3-0 home win against Artesanos Metepec II on Feb 13.

Ajolotes Lerma FC have been more consistent. Their last five matches produced two wins, one draw, and two losses (L, L, W, D, W). They lost 3-1 away to Artesanos Metepec II on Sep 18, but prior to that they secured a 2-1 home victory over Grupo Sherwood on Feb 21 and a 0-0 draw against Hermanos Benitez on Feb 27.

Head-to-Head Record

These teams have met once before. That match took place on Mar 7 in Liga TDP, where Ajolotes Lerma FC beat Dragones Toluca II 4-2 at home. The head-to-head record stands at 0 wins for Dragones Toluca II, 0 draws, and 1 win for Ajolotes Lerma FC.

League Table Positions

Both teams compete in Mexico's Liga TDP. Specific league table positions and points are not available in the current data, but the form guide and head-to-head record give a clear indication of the relative strength of the two sides heading into this fixture.

Win Probability: Dragones Toluca II or Ajolotes Lerma FC?

Based on the available data, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Ajolotes Lerma FC have a 50% chance of winning, Dragones Toluca II have a 30% chance, and the draw is at 20%. This calculation uses the inverse of the odds (home 2.00, draw 2.50, away 4.50) as a base, normalized to remove the bookmaker margin, and then adjusted for the away team's superior recent form (two wins in the last five vs one for the home side) and the head-to-head record, where Ajolotes Lerma FC won the only previous meeting 4-2. The home advantage for Dragones Toluca II is factored in, but it is not enough to outweigh the form and H2H deficit. Ajolotes Lerma FC are the more likely winners.

Odds & Match Prediction

The pre-match odds for the 1X2 market are: Dragones Toluca II at 2.00, the draw at 2.50, and Ajolotes Lerma FC at 4.50. Bookmakers see Dragones Toluca II as the favorite in the betting, but the form and head-to-head data point strongly toward an away win. Based on the stats, our prediction leans toward Ajolotes Lerma FC to win, with the value potentially lying in the higher away odds.