Dunarea Giurgiu - ACS Progresul Mogosoaia prediction 3 October 2026

The Dunarea Giurgiu vs ACS Progresul Mogosoaia prediction for this Liga III match on Oct 3, 2026, points to a home win. Based on the latest odds, team form and home advantage, Dunarea Giurgiu has a 55% chance of winning, the draw sits at 24%, and an away win for ACS Progresul Mogosoaia is at 21%.

Team Form

Dunarea Giurgiu come into this match with a record of D, D, W, L, W in their last five outings across all competitions. They drew 1-1 away to ACS Omega Buc, shared a 2-2 draw at CSM Alexandria, won 3-1 at LPS HD Clinceni, lost 0-3 at home to CSA Steaua in the Cup, and beat CSM Cetatea Turnu Magurele 2-1 at home. The team has scored in four of those five matches but also kept only one clean sheet.

ACS Progresul Mogosoaia’s last five results read D, L, L, W, W. They drew 3-3 at home with CSM Cetatea Turnu Magurele, lost 1-0 away to ACS Omega Buc, were beaten 3-0 at home by Dinamo Bucuresti II, then bounced back with a 2-1 win at Progresul Spartac 1944 and a 1-0 home success against Voluntari II. That sequence shows vulnerability on the road, having lost two of their last three away matches.

Head-to-Head Record

There are no previous head-to-head meetings between Dunarea Giurgiu and ACS Progresul Mogosoaia. This will be the first competitive clash between the two sides.

Win Probability: Dunarea Giurgiu or ACS Progresul Mogosoaia?

After normalising the bookmaker odds and adjusting for team form and home advantage, the outcome probabilities are:
Dunarea Giurgiu win – 55%
Draw – 24%
ACS Progresul Mogosoaia win – 21%

Dunarea Giurgiu are the clear favourites, backed by odds of 1.70, a solid recent run of three unbeaten league matches (W1 D2), and the comfort of playing at home. ACS Progresul Mogosoaia are priced at 3.80 to win, reflecting their inconsistent away form (L, L, W in the most recent road games). The draw is seen as a 24% chance, which is typical for a league where neither side has a dominant track record.

Odds & Match Prediction

The available 1X2 odds are: Dunarea Giurgiu 1.70, Draw 3.70, ACS Progresul Mogosoaia 3.80. Bookmakers have installed the home side as favourites, and the stats back that view. Based on the data, the most likely outcome is a home victory. A draw cannot be ruled out given Dunarea’s two recent stalemates, but the value is with the favourite. The recommendation, based on the stats, is to back Dunarea Giurgiu to win.