Septemvri Sofia - Dunav Ruse prediction 11 October 2026

Our Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse prediction for the 1st League match on October 11, 2026, at 13:00 highlights a fixture where a draw is the most likely outcome. Based on the latest odds, team form, and head-to-head record, Septemvri Sofia holds a 38% win probability, while Dunav Ruse has just a 23% chance, leaving a 39% probability for the stalemate.

Team Form

Septemvri Sofia enter this match in poor shape. Their last five results across all competitions read L, L, L, D, W. In the 1st League, they suffered a heavy 0-3 home loss to Botev Plovdiv and a 2-3 defeat at home to Botev Vratsa, with only a 1-0 win over CSKA 1948 Sofia breaking a four-game winless run. At home, they have managed just one victory in their last three league outings.

Dunav Ruse are also struggling. Their last five matches (including friendlies) show D, L, D, L, L. In the league, they drew 2-2 at home to Botev Vratsa, lost 1-2 away to CSKA 1948 Sofia, and lost 0-1 at home to Slavia Sofia. Away from home, they have failed to win in their last three competitive fixtures, scoring only once.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall H2H record between these sides is perfectly balanced: 9 wins each and 3 draws. The last five meetings have been particularly tight, with three draws and one win apiece. The most recent clash, in October 2023, ended 1-1. When playing at home, Septemvri Sofia have not beaten Dunav Ruse in the last two attempts (0-1 loss, 1-1 draw).

League Table Positions

Septemvri Sofia sit 10th in the 1st League standings with 8 points from 10 matches (2 wins, 2 draws, 6 losses). They have scored only 8 goals and conceded 18. Dunav Ruse’s exact position is not available in the current table, but their recent league results place them among the bottom sides as well. Both teams are desperate for points to climb away from the relegation zone.

Win Probability: Septemvri Sofia or Dunav Ruse?

After normalizing bookmaker odds and adjusting for recent form and H2H, the win probabilities are: Septemvri Sofia 38%, draw 39%, Dunav Ruse 23%. The odds imply a very close contest, but the market slightly favors the home side. However, both teams’ poor attacking records and the history of draws in this fixture push the draw probability above the home win. Dunav Ruse’s away struggles further reduce their chances. The most likely outcome is a draw, with Septemvri Sofia having a marginally better chance of taking all three points than the visitors.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer a range of odds for this match. The best available home win odds are around 2.20, the draw is priced as low as 1.98, and an away win can be backed at up to 3.80. These odds reflect the expectation of a low-scoring, evenly matched game. Based on the stats, the safest betting tip is the draw. Septemvri Sofia could edge it if they rediscover the form that gave them a 1-0 home win against CSKA 1948 Sofia, but Dunav Ruse’s resilience in recent H2H meetings makes a stalemate the most probable result.