Dundalk - Bohemians Dublin prediction 2 October 2026

The Premier Division matchup between Dundalk and Bohemians Dublin takes place on Oct 2, 2026, at 19:45 at Oriel Park. Our Dundalk vs Bohemians Dublin prediction sees Bohemians as the favorite with a 40% win probability, while Dundalk stands at 25% and the draw at 35%.

Team Form

Dundalk's recent form has been worrying: in their last five matches they recorded just one win, one draw, and three losses. They suffered a 2-3 home defeat to Shelbourne and a heavy 0-4 home loss to St. Patricks Athletic, followed by a 1-1 away draw at Waterford United. A 2-4 FAI Cup loss at Derry City and a 3-2 away win over Drogheda United complete that run. Bohemians Dublin, by contrast, are unbeaten in their last five outings, winning three and drawing two. They beat Drogheda United 2-1 at home, SD Galway 3-2 away, and Sligo Rovers 3-0 at home, with draws against Bohemians Praha 1905 (0-0 friendly) and St. Patricks Athletic (0-0 FAI Cup away). Bohemians enter the match in far stronger form.

Head-to-Head Record

Historically, Dundalk dominate the head-to-head with 32 wins, while Bohemians have 11 victories and 10 draws. In the last five meetings across all competitions, however, things are more balanced: Dundalk won 2-1 away in June 2026, Bohemians replied with a 3-1 away win in May 2026, and the sides drew 1-1 (March 2026) and 0-0 (Leinster Senior Cup, February 2024). The 2023 league clash at Oriel Park ended 2-0 to Dundalk. The most recent match at this venue saw Bohemians win convincingly, giving them psychological edge.

League Table Positions

Bohemians Dublin sit 3rd in the Premier Division with 56 points from 31 games (16 wins, 8 draws, 7 losses, 55 goals scored, 37 conceded). Dundalk are 5th with 41 points from 32 games (10 wins, 11 draws, 11 losses, 49:53 goal difference). Bohemians hold the best away record in the league – 1st with 9 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses (28:18 goals) – while Dundalk’s home form is modest: 5th with 6 wins, 3 draws, 7 losses (25:25 goals). The gap in positions and away strength clearly favors the visitors.

Win Probability: Dundalk or Bohemians Dublin?

Using the available odds as a baseline and adjusting for current form, head-to-head trends, and league positions, we calculate the following probabilities: Dundalk win – 25%, draw – 35%, Bohemians Dublin win – 40%. The bookmakers’ average implied probabilities (after removing the margin) gave Bohemians around 36-38% and the draw 35-36%, but the visitors’ superior recent results and away record, plus Dundalk’s consecutive home defeats, push Bohemians’ chance higher. A draw remains a very real possibility given the competitive nature of this fixture.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers quote odds in the region of 2.90 for a Dundalk win, 2.40 for the draw, and 2.40 for a Bohemians Dublin victory. These numbers reflect the market’s view of an evenly matched game with a slight tilt toward the away side. Based on the stats, Bohemians Dublin are the most likely winners – they are in better form and have the best away record in the division. Our prediction: Bohemians to win, but a stalemate is a distinctly possible outcome given the head-to-head pattern.