Dunfermline - Livingston prediction 17 October 2026

Our Dunfermline vs Livingston prediction for this Scottish Championship match on Oct 17 at 15:00 is based on a detailed analysis of team form, head-to-head record, and league table positions. Dunfermline has a 42% chance of winning, the draw is at 35%, and Livingston has a 23% chance.

Team Form

Dunfermline come into this match unbeaten in their last five outings, with a record of three wins and two draws. Their most recent result was a 1-1 away draw against Ayr United on Oct 10. Prior to that, they secured a 1-0 away win at Greenock Morton on Sep 19 and a 2-0 home victory over Queens Park on Sep 12. They also drew 1-1 at Arbroath on Sep 5 and beat Raith Rovers 1-0 at home on Aug 28.

Livingston's recent form has been mixed, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. They suffered back-to-back home defeats, losing 2-1 to Partick Thistle on Oct 10 and 2-1 to Ayr United on Oct 3. However, they did record an impressive 2-0 away win at Raith Rovers on Sep 25 and a 4-1 away victory at Greenock Morton on Sep 11. Their other result was a 2-2 home draw with Inverness CT on Sep 19.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these sides heavily favors Dunfermline. In their last 12 meetings, Dunfermline have won 6, Livingston have won 2, and there have been 4 draws. The most recent encounter on Aug 22 saw Livingston win 2-0 at home. However, Dunfermline won the previous Championship fixture 1-0 at home on Apr 2, 2025. The match before that ended in a 0-0 draw at Livingston on Feb 15, 2025. Dunfermline also recorded a 3-0 home win in the Championship on Oct 29, 2024.

League Table Positions

In the Scottish Championship standings, Dunfermline sit 6th with 13 points from 8 matches, having won 3, drawn 4, and lost just once. They have scored 7 goals and conceded 5. Livingston are 4th with 13 points from 10 matches, with a record of 4 wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses, scoring 14 and conceding 11. Dunfermline have a game in hand and a superior defensive record. At home, Dunfermline are 7th with 7 points from 3 games (2 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses). Livingston's away form places them 5th with 6 points from 4 away matches (2 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses).

Win Probability: Dunfermline or Livingston?

Based on the available odds, recent form, head-to-head dominance, and home advantage, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Dunfermline win: 42%, Draw: 35%, Livingston win: 23%. The odds imply a tight contest, but Dunfermline's strong H2H record at home, their unbeaten recent run, and Livingston's inconsistent away form tilt the probabilities in favor of the home side. The draw is also a significant possibility given Dunfermline's four draws in eight league games.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' odds for the 1X2 market show a very balanced match. The best available home win odds for Dunfermline are 2.75, the draw is priced at 2.20, and an away win for Livingston is at 2.88. The odds suggest bookmakers see this as a close contest with no clear favorite. Based on the stats, our Dunfermline vs Livingston prediction is a home win or a draw, with Dunfermline the more likely side to take all three points given their solid defensive record and historical edge in this fixture.