Ebbsfleet United - Weston Super Mare prediction 17 October 2026

The Ebbsfleet United vs Weston Super Mare prediction for the National League South clash on Oct 17 at 15:00 points towards a tight contest. Based on the available data, Ebbsfleet United has a 45% chance of winning, the draw is at 30%, and Weston Super Mare has a 25% chance.

Team Form

Ebbsfleet United come into this match in strong form, with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five outings (W, W, L, D, W). They secured a 2-0 away victory at Hampton & Richmond on Oct 10 and a 1-0 home win against Folkestone Invicta on Oct 6. Their only recent league defeat was a 1-2 home loss to Sholing in the FA Cup on Oct 3.

Weston Super Mare's recent form shows two wins, two draws, and one loss (D, L, D, W, W). They drew 1-1 at home with Folkestone Invicta on Oct 10 and lost 3-2 away to Farnham Town on Sep 26. Prior to that, they recorded back-to-back home wins against Dagenham & Redbridge (1-0) and AFC Totton (3-1).

Head-to-Head Record

In the last three meetings, Weston Super Mare hold the edge with two wins to Ebbsfleet United's one. The most recent encounter on Mar 21, 2026, saw Weston Super Mare win 3-1 away. Ebbsfleet's sole win in this period was a 2-1 home victory back in March 2017. The head-to-head record shows no draws in these three matches.

League Table Positions

Ebbsfleet United sit 12th in the National League South overall standings with 15 points from 7 matches, remaining unbeaten with 4 wins and 3 draws. They have scored 9 goals and conceded just 3. Their away form is particularly impressive, ranking 8th with 10 points from 4 games (3 wins, 1 draw).

Weston Super Mare are 6th overall with 18 points from 11 matches (5 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses), scoring 19 and conceding 11. At home, they rank 2nd with 14 points from 7 games (4 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss). Ebbsfleet have games in hand and a perfect unbeaten record, while Weston Super Mare have played more matches and sit higher in the table.

Win Probability: Ebbsfleet United or Weston Super Mare?

Calculating the win probability based on form, head-to-head record, league positions, and the home/away factor, we assess the chances as follows: Ebbsfleet United has a 45% chance of winning, the draw is at 30%, and Weston Super Mare has a 25% chance. Ebbsfleet's unbeaten league record and solid defense (only 3 goals conceded) give them a slight edge, but Weston Super Mare's higher table position and superior head-to-head record balance the probabilities. The home advantage for Ebbsfleet United is factored in, though their home form specifically is not detailed in the standings.

Odds & Match Prediction

Specific odds for this fixture are not available in the provided data. However, based on the stats, bookmakers would likely see this as a closely matched contest. Ebbsfleet United's unbeaten league run makes them marginal favorites, but Weston Super Mare's experience and higher league standing cannot be overlooked. Our Ebbsfleet United vs Westin Super Mare prediction leans towards a home win or a draw, with the most likely outcome being a low-scoring affair given Ebbsfleet's defensive record.