Ehime FC - Renofa Yamaguchi prediction 21 October 2026

Our Ehime FC vs Renofa Yamaguchi prediction for the J3 League match on October 21, 2026, at 11:00 at Ningineer Stadium points to a tight contest with Ehime FC holding a slight edge. Based on the latest stats, Ehime FC has a 40% chance of winning, the draw is at 35%, and Renofa Yamaguchi has a 25% chance.

Team Form

Ehime FC's last five matches show mixed results: L, W, W, L, D. They suffered a 4-2 away loss to Kagoshima United, then bounced back with a 2-0 win at Roasso Kumamoto and a 3-1 home victory over TheSpa Kusatsu Gunma. A 0-2 home defeat to Tokyo in the League Cup was followed by a 1-1 draw at FC Ryukyu. At home in the league, however, they have been perfect with five wins from five.

Renofa Yamaguchi are in excellent form, with a sequence of W, W, W, D, W. They beat Kochi United SC 2-0 at home, won 1-0 at Tochigi SC, and 2-0 at Gifu. A 2-2 home draw with Sagamihara was followed by a 2-1 away win at Zweigen Kanazawa. That's four wins and a draw in their last five outings.

Head-to-Head Record

In 20 previous meetings, Ehime FC have won 8, Renofa Yamaguchi 4, and 8 ended in draws. The last five encounters underline the draw trend: a 2-0 home win for Ehime in June 2025, then four consecutive 1-1 draws (April 2025, November 2024, March 2024, December 2021). Ehime are unbeaten in the last five H2H matches (1 win, 4 draws).

League Table Positions

Both teams are level on 23 points after 11 matches, with Ehime FC second and Renofa Yamaguchi third on goal difference. Ehime have scored 26 and conceded 14; Renofa have 16 goals for and only 7 against. At home, Ehime boast a 100% record (5 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, 17:5 goals). Renofa's away form is strong but not flawless: 4 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses, 9:5 goals.

Win Probability: Ehime FC or Renofa Yamaguchi?

After analyzing bookmaker odds, recent form, head-to-head history, and home/away records, we calculate the following win probabilities:

• Ehime FC win: 40%
• Draw: 35%
• Renofa Yamaguchi win: 25%

The odds implied a very even match, but Ehime's perfect home league record (5 wins from 5) significantly boosts their chances. Renofa's strong recent form and the high frequency of draws in this fixture (4 of the last 5 ended 1-1) keep the draw probability high. Overall, Ehime FC are the more likely winners, but a stalemate is a very realistic outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers have set the following odds ranges: Ehime FC win 2.22–2.62, draw 2.18–2.36, Renofa Yamaguchi win 2.65–3.00. These reflect a tight contest with no clear favourite. Based on the stats, our prediction leans towards a home win for Ehime FC, but with a strong possibility of a draw. A 1-1 or narrow home win would be consistent with the data.