Roasso Kumamoto - Ehime FC prediction 11 October 2026

Our Roasso Kumamoto vs Ehime FC prediction for this J3 League clash on Oct 11, 2026, at 05:00 points toward a closely contested match where a draw looks a strong possibility. Based on the stats, Roasso Kumamoto has a 36% chance of winning, the draw sits at 37%, and Ehime FC has a 27% chance of victory at Egao Kenko Stadium.

Team Form

Roasso Kumamoto comes into this match with a mixed run in their last five outings: two draws, one loss, and two wins (D, L, W, D, W). Their recent results include a 0-0 draw at Reilac Shiga FC, a 1-0 loss at home to Kawasaki Frontale in the League Cup, and a 1-0 win at TheSpa Kusatsu Gunma. At home, they drew 0-0 with Matsumoto Yamaga, while they beat Fukushima United FC 2-1 on the road. They have been defensively solid but lack cutting edge in attack.

Meanwhile, Ehime FC has recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five (W, L, D, W, L). They enjoyed a convincing 3-1 home win over TheSpa Kusatsu Gunma, followed by a 2-0 home loss to Tokyo in the League Cup. On their travels, they drew 1-1 at FC Ryukyu and lost 2-1 at FC Osaka. Ehime's attack has been strong at home, but their away form is less consistent.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors Roasso Kumamoto. Across 10 previous meetings, they have 7 wins, 2 draws, and just 1 defeat against Ehime FC. The most recent match, on May 30, 2026, saw Roasso Kumamoto win 1-0 away in J2 League. Before that, the teams played out two consecutive draws: 1-1 on Nov 23, 2025, and 2-2 on May 11, 2025. Roasso beat Ehime FC 3-2 away on Mar 10, 2024, and 3-0 at home on Nov 17, 2018. Roasso clearly holds the psychological edge in this fixture.

League Table Positions

Ehime FC sits 2nd in the overall J3 League standings with 20 points from 9 matches (6 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss), having scored 22 goals and conceded 10. They boast a perfect home record with 5 wins from 5, scoring 17 and conceding 5. Roasso Kumamoto is 8th overall with 14 points (3 wins, 5 draws, 1 loss), 7 goals scored and only 4 conceded. Their strength is away form: they are top of the away table with 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses, 5 goals for and just 1 against. The 6-point gap and league positions suggest Ehime FC is having a better season, but Roasso's stellar away defense makes this an intriguing encounter.

Win Probability: Roasso Kumamoto or Ehime FC?

After calculating odds implied probabilities and adjusting for form and head-to-head, the most likely outcome is a draw at 37%. Roasso Kumamoto has a 36% chance to win, and Ehime FC has a 27% chance. The draw odds around 2.10–2.20 from bookmakers, combined with Roasso's 5 draws in 9 league matches and the last two H2H results ending level, strongly point toward a stalemate. Roasso's home advantage is mitigated by the fact that Ehime FC is the league's best home side, but here Roasso is the host — and they have been extremely hard to beat away from home all season. Overall, Roasso Kumamoto has a slightly higher probability than Ehime FC, but the draw remains the single most probable result.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see this as a very tight match. The available odds show home win prices around 2.60–2.88, draws as low as 2.10, and away wins between 2.20 and 3.44. The low draw odds across multiple bookmakers confirm the expectation of a close game. Based on the stats, Roasso Kumamoto's dominance in the head-to-head record (7 wins in 10), their strong away defensive record, and Ehime FC's mixed away form, a draw is the most likely result. However, if there is to be a winner, Roasso Kumamoto appears the more probable side, given the H2H history and their defensive organization. The recommended betting tip is the draw, but a double chance on Roasso or Draw also holds value.