Ellidi - Alafoss prediction 22 July 2026

The Ellidi vs Alafoss prediction focuses on the Iceland 4th Division clash on July 22, 2026 at 19:15. Based on the head-to-head record and recent form, Ellidi enter the match as the clear favorite with an estimated 50% win probability, while Alafoss hold just a 20% chance and the draw is rated at 30%.

Team Form

Ellidi's recent results show inconsistency. Their last five matches ended W, L, L, L, W. The most recent was a high-scoring 6-4 away win against Vaengir Jupiters on Jul 18, followed by a 2-5 home loss to Alftanes, a 0-4 defeat at Hamar Hveragerdi, a 0-6 loss at Arborg, and a 6-2 home victory over IH Hafnarfjordur. Clearly, Ellidi can both score heavily and concede heavily.

Alafoss come into the game with five results reading W, D, L, L, L. They broke a winless streak with a 4-2 away win at IH Hafnarfjordur on Jul 11. Before that, they drew 2-2 at home to Ulfarnir, lost 1-6 at home to Hamar Hveragerdi, lost 1-3 away to Vaengir Jupiters, and lost 1-2 home to KFR Hvolsvollur. In their last five, they have managed just one win, conceding 15 goals in the process.

Head-to-Head Record

Ellidi hold a perfect record against Alafoss, with two wins from two previous meetings (homeWins 2, draws 0, awayWins 0). The most recent clash was on May 21, 2026, when Ellidi secured a 3-1 away victory. The only other fixture dates back to a Cup match on Apr 11, 2019, where Ellidi dominated 8-1 at home. This head-to-head history heavily favors the home side.

League Table Positions

No current league table data is available for the Iceland 4th Division at the time of writing, so direct positional comparison cannot be made. However, the form and head-to-head trends provide enough evidence to separate the two sides.

Win Probability: Ellidi or Alafoss?

We calculate the outcome probabilities based on all available numbers: Ellidi have a 50% chance to win, the draw stands at 30%, and Alafoss have a 20% shot. These figures are derived from the head-to-head dominance (Ellidi won both previous encounters), Ellidi’s home advantage, and a comparison of the two sides' recent form. While neither team is defensively solid, Ellidi have shown a greater ability to score — 14 goals in their last five versus Alafoss’ 9 — and their H2H superiority tilts the probability heavily in their favor. The chance of an upset is not zero given both teams’ defensive vulnerabilities, but a draw is a more likely alternative to an Alafoss win.

Odds & Match Prediction

No bookmaker odds are currently provided in the data, so we cannot reference existing betting tips or odds. Our match prediction is based purely on the statistical facts: Ellidi are the more probable winner. Based on the stats, Ellidi to win is the most likely match outcome. Punters looking for betting tips should note the likelihood of both teams scoring, as both have consistently found the net and conceded in recent outings. A high-scoring game is a distinct possibility.