Elva - FC Tallinn prediction 19 September 2026

The Elva vs FC Tallinn prediction points to a clear home favorite in this Esiliiga fixture on September 19, 2026, at 13:00. Based on form, head-to-head dominance and league positions, Elva enter the match with a 65% win probability, while FC Tallinn hold just a 10% chance and the draw stands at 25%.

Team Form

Elva’s recent matches show solid consistency with three wins, one draw and only one heavy defeat in their last five outings. They claimed away victories against Flora Tallinn II (2-1) and Nomme United 2 (1-0), beat JK Nomme Kalju 2 1-0 at home and drew 0-0 at home with Flora Tallinn II. The only blemish was a 5-0 away loss at Viimsi MRJK. Across these five games Elva scored four goals and kept three clean sheets, underlining a defensively organized side.

FC Tallinn’s form reads two wins and three losses. After a 2-1 away win at Viimsi MRJK and a 4-2 home success against FC Maardu, they have since lost 0-2 at home to JK Nomme Kalju 2, 1-2 away at Levadia Tallinn II and were beaten 5-1 at home by Levadia Tallinn II. Eight goals scored in five games masks a leaky defence that conceded twelve times, which will be a major concern facing an Elva side that has already beaten them twice in 2026 league meetings.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall H2H record stands at 6 Elva wins, 4 draws and only 1 FC Tallinn victory. The last five encounters underline this dominance: Elva won 3-0 away on Jul 11, 2026, 2-0 at home on May 7, 2026, 1-0 at home on Oct 19, 2025 and 2-1 away on Aug 16, 2025, with a single 1-1 draw on Mar 7, 2026. FC Tallinn have not beaten Elva in any of their most recent eleven meetings, making Elva an even stronger pick in this fixture.

League Table Positions

Elva sit 4th in the Esiliiga table with 47 points from 29 matches (14 wins, 5 draws, 10 losses) and a goal difference of +3. At home they have recorded 8 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses, scoring and conceding exactly 20 goals in 14 games. FC Tallinn are 9th with 31 points (8 wins, 7 draws, 14 losses) and a goal difference of -26. The visitors have conceded 64 goals this season – the second-worst defensive record in the division – and face a 16-point gap to their opponents.

Win Probability: Elva or FC Tallinn?

Elva has a 65% chance of winning, the draw is at 25%, and FC Tallinn has a 10% chance. These Elva vs FC Tallinn prediction percentages are calculated from the head-to-head record (Elva unbeaten in 11, four wins and a draw in the last five), recent form (Elva 3W 1D 1L versus FC Tallinn 2W 3L) and a 16-point gap in the league table. Home advantage and FC Tallinn’s poor away defensive record further tilt the probability sharply in the home side’s favour.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers’ odds for the match were not available at the time of analysis. Based purely on the stats, Elva are expected to win. The H2H record, form and league positions all suggest a home victory, and with Elva keeping three clean sheets in their last five games and FC Tallinn conceding heavily on the road, a low-scoring win for the hosts is the most likely match outcome.