Elverum - Lyn 1896 FK II prediction 12 October 2026

Our Elverum vs Lyn 1896 FK II prediction for the 3rd Division match on October 12, 2026, points to a home win. Elverum enter the game as clear favorites with a 58% win probability, while Lyn 1896 FK II have just a 15% chance of an away victory. The match kicks off at 17:00 local time in Norway.

Team Form

Elverum's last five matches show inconsistent results (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses):

• 3-4 loss at Sandefjord II (Sep 26)
• 4-1 win vs Raelingen (Sep 19)
• 0-3 loss vs Raufoss (Cup, Sep 16)
• 2-4 loss at Rade (Sep 12)
• 1-1 draw at Brumunddal (Sep 5)

At home, Elverum won their last league fixture 4-1, which offers some encouragement. However, they have conceded 13 goals in this five-game span, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities.

Lyn 1896 FK II are in even poorer form, without a win in their last five outings (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses):

• 0-0 draw vs Rade (Oct 5)
• 0-1 loss at Raelingen (Sep 28)
• 2-2 draw vs Sarpsborg 08 II (Sep 21)
• 0-2 loss at Gjovik-Lyn (Sep 12)
• 1-4 loss at Drobak/Frogn (Sep 7)

The visitors have scored only 3 goals in these five matches and have kept just one clean sheet. Their away record is particularly concerning, with three defeats and no goals scored in two of those losses.

Head-to-Head Record

These teams have met only once before, on April 27, 2026. In that encounter, Lyn 1896 FK II secured a 2-1 home victory. The small sample size makes it difficult to draw strong conclusions, but it does show that Lyn can compete with Elverum on their day.

League Table Positions

Neither Elverum nor Lyn 1896 FK II appear in the top 12 of the 3rd Division standings, indicating both are likely in the lower half of the table. Without exact positions, it's hard to gauge the points gap, but the absence from the upper echelon suggests both sides have struggled this season.

Win Probability: Elverum or Lyn 1896 FK II?

Based on the available data, we calculate the following win probabilities for this match:

• Elverum win: 58%
• Draw: 27%
• Lyn 1896 FK II win: 15%

These percentages are derived from the bookmaker odds (1.57 home, 3.10 draw, 6.00 away), which imply a 56.6% home win chance after removing the margin. We then adjusted slightly upward for Elverum due to their home advantage and Lyn's terrible recent form, while lowering the draw and away probabilities. Elverum's last home league win (4-1) and Lyn's goal drought on the road reinforce the home favorite status. Therefore, Elverum are the more likely winners, but the draw remains a realistic possibility given both teams' inconsistency.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds for this 3rd Division clash are:

• Elverum to win: 1.57
• Draw: 3.10
• Lyn 1896 FK II to win: 6.00

Bookmakers clearly see Elverum as the strong favorite. Our prediction aligns with this view: Elverum to win. However, cautious bettors may note that Elverum's defense has been leaky, and Lyn 1896 FK II held Rade to a 0-0 draw in their most recent away game. Based on the stats, the most likely outcome is a home victory, but a low-scoring match could also produce a draw.