Guiniguada Apolinario Women - EMF Fuensalida Women prediction 3 October 2026

The Guiniguada Apolinario Women vs EMF Fuensalida Women prediction for the Segunda Federacion Women match on Oct 3, 2026, at 18:30 points to a home win, but with a lower probability than the odds suggest. Our analysis gives Guiniguada Apolinario Women a 50% chance of winning, the draw 25%, and EMF Fuensalida Women 25%.

Team Form

Guiniguada Apolinario Women come into this match in poor form. They have lost four of their last five games (L, L, W, L, L). The only victory in that run was a 1-0 cup win over CD Femarguin Women on Sep 9. In the league, they suffered a 2-0 defeat at CD Getafe Women on Sep 27 and a 3-2 home loss to Cordoba CF Women on Sep 13. Earlier in 2026, they lost 1-0 at Cordoba CF Women and 1-0 at home to CD Femarguin Women. Defensive frailties are evident, with just one clean sheet in five matches.

EMF Fuensalida Women, on the other hand, have won three of their last five (L, W, L, W, W). Their most recent outing was a 1-0 defeat at Cordoba CF Women in the Segunda Federacion on Sep 6. Before that, they recorded three wins in the Tercera Federacion: 1-0 against Las Rozas CF Women, 2-1 against Dinamo Guadalajara Women, and a 4-1 thrashing of Torrelodones Women. The only other loss was a 3-1 home reverse to Villaviciosa de Odon Women. The away side has shown more consistency and attacking threat, scoring seven goals in their last three wins.

Head-to-Head Record

There is no head-to-head record between Guiniguada Apolinario Women and EMF Fuensalida Women. This will be the first ever meeting between the two sides.

Win Probability: Guiniguada Apolinario Women or EMF Fuensalida Women?

Based on the available data, we calculate the win probabilities as follows:

• Guiniguada Apolinario Women win: 50%
• Draw: 25%
• EMF Fuensalida Women win: 25%

Bookmakers’ odds (home 1.50, draw 4.00, away 5.00) imply a 60% chance for the home side after removing the margin. However, the home team’s recent form – just one win in five, all in the Segunda Federacion – forces a significant downward adjustment. EMF Fuensalida Women’s stronger recent results, even if partly from a lower division, suggest they can compete. The lack of H2H data and home advantage still keep Guiniguada Apolinario Women as the most likely winner, but the match is far more balanced than the raw odds indicate.

Odds & Match Prediction

The current odds are: Guiniguada Apolinario Women win at 1.50, draw at 4.00, EMF Fuensalida Women win at 5.00. Bookmakers clearly see the home team as the favourite. Our prediction, however, is more cautious. While a home win remains the single most probable outcome, the away side’s form and the home team’s struggles make a draw a very realistic possibility. Based on the stats, the best betting tip is to consider the double chance of a home win or draw, or to back Guiniguada Apolinario Women to win with a low stake. The match is likely to be tight, with under 2.5 goals a plausible secondary market.