Erbil SC - Al Karma prediction 14 September 2026

Erbil SC vs Al Karma prediction for the Stars League match on Sep 14, 2026. Based on the stats, Erbil SC has a 35% chance of winning, the draw is at 40%, and Al Karma has a 25% chance.

Team Form

Erbil SC come into this match unbeaten in their last five games (W, D, W, W, D). They secured a 2-0 home win over Diyala FC on Sep 08, followed by a goalless draw away at Al Shorta Bagdad. At home, Erbil SC have been solid, with three wins and a draw in four home matches, scoring 7 goals and conceding just 1.

Al Karma are also in excellent form, with four wins and one draw in their last five (W, W, W, D, W). They beat Al Naft 3-0 at home on Sep 09 and have scored 11 goals in six league games. Away from home, Al Karma have played two matches, winning one and drawing one, with 3 goals scored and 2 conceded.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last four meetings between Erbil SC and Al Karma, Erbil SC have won twice, Al Karma once, and one match ended in a draw. The most recent encounter on Mar 07, 2026, saw Erbil SC win 3-2 away at Al Karma. At Erbil SC's home ground, the last two H2H matches produced a 2-1 win for Erbil SC in October 2025 and a 1-1 draw in January 2025.

League Table Positions

Both teams are in the top three of the Stars League. Al Karma sit 2nd with 14 points from 6 matches (4 wins, 2 draws), while Erbil SC are 3rd also with 14 points but a slightly inferior goal difference. Erbil SC boast the best defensive record in the league, conceding only 1 goal in 6 games. At home, Erbil SC have 10 points from 4 games (3 wins, 1 draw) and have kept three clean sheets. Al Karma's away record stands at 4 points from 2 games (1 win, 1 draw).

Win Probability: Erbil SC or Al Karma?

Based on the odds, team form, head-to-head record, and home advantage, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Erbil SC win – 35%, draw – 40%, Al Karma win – 25%. The bookmakers' average odds of 3.15 for a home win, 1.98 for a draw, and 3.28 for an away win imply a high chance of a draw, which we have adjusted slightly to account for Erbil SC's strong home defense and historical edge in this fixture. A draw is the most likely outcome, but Erbil SC have a better chance of winning than Al Karma.

Odds & Match Prediction

The average odds from bookmakers are: Erbil SC win 3.15, draw 1.98, Al Karma win 3.28. These odds clearly indicate that a draw is the expected result. Considering both teams' unbeaten runs and solid defensive records, a low-scoring draw seems plausible. However, Erbil SC's home form and head-to-head advantage give them a slight upper hand. Our prediction: a draw is the safest bet, but Erbil SC could snatch a narrow win.