ESM Kolea - ES Mostaganem prediction 13 October 2026

Looking for an ESM Kolea vs ES Mostaganem prediction? This Algeria Ligue 2 match on Oct 13 at 15:00 is a close betting contest. Based on 1X2 odds, recent form and the head-to-head record, ESM Kolea have a 37% win probability, the draw is 35%, and ES Mostaganem are 28%.

Team Form

ESM Kolea's last five results are L, W, D, L, L. They lost their most recent match 1-0 at USM Blida on Oct 9, but before that beat MC El Bayadh 1-0 on Oct 3. Their recent Ligue 2 results:

• Oct 9: USM Blida 1-0 ESM Kolea — loss
• Oct 3: ESM Kolea 1-0 MC El Bayadh — win
• Sep 26: RC Arbaa 0-0 ESM Kolea — draw
• Sep 19: ESM Kolea 0-3 Kouba — loss
• May 8: ESM Kolea 1-3 Hussein Dey — loss

ES Mostaganem's last five results are D, W, L, D, L. They drew 2-2 at Irb Sidi M Hamed Benali on Oct 3 and beat Hussein Dey 1-0 on Sep 26. Their recent matches:

• Oct 3: Irb Sidi M Hamed Benali 2-2 ES Mostaganem — draw
• Sep 26: ES Mostaganem 1-0 Hussein Dey — win
• Sep 19: ES Mostaganem 1-2 USM Blida — loss
• Jun 5: ES Mostaganem 2-2 MC El Bayadh — draw
• May 19: ES Ben Aknoun 3-0 ES Mostaganem — loss

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record in the data has 0 ESM Kolea wins, 1 draw and 1 ES Mostaganem win.

• Mar 23, 2024: ES Mostaganem 2-0 ESM Kolea
• Nov 17, 2023: ESM Kolea 0-0 ES Mostaganem

ES Mostaganem won the most recent meeting, but there is still only a small H2H sample. That gives ES Mostaganem a slight edge in this direct matchup.

Win Probability: ESM Kolea or ES Mostaganem?

The win probability starts from the inverse of the 1X2 odds and normalizes the four listed odds sets to remove the bookmaker margin. The base numbers are 37.3% for ESM Kolea, 34.6% for the draw and 28.1% for ES Mostaganem. After adjusting for home advantage and team form, the final probabilities are ESM Kolea 37%, draw 35%, ES Mostaganem 28%. All outcomes total 100%.

This means ESM Kolea are the most likely single winner, but the match is far from one-sided. The draw has a high probability because both teams have drawn recent matches, and ES Mostaganem are not discounted after winning the last H2H meeting.

Odds & ESM Kolea vs ES Mostaganem Prediction

The prematch 1X2 odds list ESM Kolea at 2.40, 2.39, 2.35 and 2.30. The draw is priced at 2.72, 2.92, 1.93 and 2.90. ES Mostaganem are offered at 3.00, 3.13, 3.60 and 2.90. Bookmakers therefore see ESM Kolea as the slight favourite.

Our betting tips view the draw and ESM Kolea win as the main outcomes to consider. Based on the stats, ESM Kolea are the most probable winner, but the odds and the head-to-head record suggest a tight Ligue 2 game. The final ESM Kolea vs ES Mostaganem prediction is ESM Kolea or draw, with ESM Kolea holding the best single outcome chance at 37%.