| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.50 | 2.70 | 1.75 | |
| 5.75 | 4.10 | 1.44 | |
| 9.33 | 5.17 | 1.31 | |
| 7.30 | 4.80 | 1.28 |
The Eskisehirspor vs Igdir Belediyespor prediction for this Cup clash on October 29, 2026, at 17:30 points towards a clear away favorite. Our win probability model gives Igdir Belediyespor a 67% chance to advance, leveraging their superior league status and recent form against an Eskisehirspor side with a 16% win probability and a 17% chance for a draw.
Eskisehirspor's recent form has been inconsistent, with their last five results reading: W, L, D, L, W. In their most recent match on Oct 11, they lost 1-0 away to Karsiyaka in the 3 Lig. A bright spot was their 4-1 home Cup win over Aksehirspor on Oct 7. The team has struggled for clean sheets, conceding in three of their last five outings.
Igdir Belediyespor arrives in formidable shape, boasting a last-five record of D, W, D, W, W. They are undefeated in this sequence, with their latest fixture producing a 2-1 away win at Bandirmaspor in the 1st League on Oct 24. Competing in a higher division (1st League), they have consistently found the net, scoring in each of their last five matches.
These teams have met once before, also in the Cup, on October 27, 2021. In that encounter, Igdir Belediyespor secured a convincing 2-0 victory over Eskisehirspor. That match remains the sole data point in their H2H history: Eskisehirspor 0 wins, 0 draws, Igdir Belediyespor 1 win.
While specific table rankings are not provided, the competition level is a significant indicator of the gulf between the sides. Igdir Belediyespor competes in the 1st League (the Turkish second tier), whereas Eskisehirspor plays in the 3 Lig (the fourth tier). This two-division gap strongly influences the expected match dynamics and probability calculations.
Our calculated win probabilities for this match are: Eskisehirspor win: 16%, Draw: 17%, Igdir Belediyespor win: 67%. This forecast is derived by normalizing the inverse of the bookmaker odds, then adjusting for form and league disparity. The most conservative bookmaker odds (1.75 for an away win) imply a base probability of roughly 57%. This is significantly boosted by Igdir Belediyespor's superior 1st League form and their 2-0 win in the only previous H2H fixture. Eskisehirspor's home advantage is factored in but is outweighed by the quality gap.
Bookmakers heavily favor the away side. The available 1X2 odds show a clear consensus: Igdir Belediyespor to win is priced as low as 1.28 with some bookies, with other odds at 1.31, 1.44, and 1.75. A draw is available around 4.10 to 5.17, while an Eskisehirspor home win is a long shot at 7.30 to 8.69. Based on the stats, the most likely match outcome is an Igdir Belediyespor victory. The division gap and their undefeated run make them the clear favorites to win this Cup tie.