Ethiopia Bunna - Negelle Arsi prediction 21 October 2026

Our Ethiopia Bunna vs Negelle Arsi prediction for this Premier League fixture on Oct 21 at 13:00 is that Ethiopia Bunna enters the match as the favorite. Based on our win probability calculation, Ethiopia Bunna has a 52% chance of winning, the draw sits at 29%, and Negelle Arsi has a 19% chance. This forecast is driven by the hosts' perfect head-to-head record and stronger recent form.

Team Form

Ethiopia Bunna's last five matches show a pattern of W, L, D, W, D. Their most recent result was an impressive 2-1 away win against Saint George SC on Oct 17. Previously, they suffered a 0-1 home defeat to Sheger Ketema on Oct 11. Their form has been inconsistent but they have proven they can win on the road. Negelle Arsi's last five results read D, D, L, W, D. They come into this game after two consecutive draws: a 0-0 stalemate at Ethio Electric on Oct 16 and a 1-1 draw at Saint George SC on Oct 10. Negelle Arsi are proving tough to beat, but wins have been hard to come by.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors Ethiopia Bunna. In the two previous meetings, Ethiopia Bunna have won twice, with zero draws and zero wins for Negelle Arsi. The most recent encounter was on Feb 26, 2026, where Ethiopia Bunna secured a 1-0 away victory. Prior to that, on Oct 23, 2025, Ethiopia Bunna won 2-1 at home. This perfect H2H record gives the home side a significant psychological edge.

League Table Positions

In the early stages of the Premier League season, Ethiopia Bunna sit 6th in the overall standings with 3 points from 2 matches (1 win, 1 loss), scoring 2 goals and conceding 2. Negelle Arsi are ranked 10th with 2 points from 2 draws, having scored 1 goal and conceded 1. Notably, in the away standings, Ethiopia Bunna are 5th with a 100% record on the road this season, while Negelle Arsi are 8th in the away table, remaining unbeaten with two draws from two away games.

Win Probability: Ethiopia Bunna or Negelle Arsi?

Who will win this match? Our calculated probabilities based on available form, head-to-head record, and league positions are as follows: Ethiopia Bunna has a 52% chance, the draw is at 29%, and Negelle Arsi has a 19% chance. The odds provided by bookmakers were used as a base, with the inverse of the best available odds (home 2.50, draw 1.83, away 3.75) normalized to remove the margin. We then adjusted heavily upwards for the home side to reflect their 100% H2H record (2 wins from 2) and a stronger recent form string that includes a victory in their last outing. Negelle Arsi's chances are downgraded because despite being hard to beat, they have failed to register a single win against today's opponent historically.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' odds for this match see Ethiopia Bunna as the favorite. The best available odds in the market show a home win priced at 2.50, a draw at 1.83, and an away win for Negelle Arsi at 3.75. Based on the stats, the value might lie with the home side given their dominant head-to-head record and the away side's lack of wins in recent matches. Our Ethiopia Bunna vs Negelle Arsi prediction is a home win, though a low-scoring affair could see the draw come into play.