Ethiopia - Senegal prediction 29 September 2026

The Ethiopia vs Senegal prediction for the African Cup of Nations match on Sep 29, 2026, at 14:00 points to a Senegal victory. Based on our analysis, Senegal has a 50% win probability, while Ethiopia holds a 20% chance, and the draw stands at 30%. Bookmakers also see the away side as the clear favorite.

Team Form

Ethiopia’s last five matches: L, D, W, W, W (most recent first). They lost 0-1 away to Sudan, drew 1-1 at home to Malawi, and then collected three wins:1-0 at home vs Malawi,1-0 at home vs São Tomé and Príncipe, and a 3-0 away win at São Tomé and Príncipe. The three clean-sheet victories highlight a solid defensive run.

Senegal’s last five matches: D, D, D, W, L. They drew 1-1 at home to Mozambique, drew 1-1 away to Mozambique, drew 2-2 away to Belgium, crushed Iraq5-0 at home, and lost 2-3 away to Norway. The draws show resilience, but the loss to Norway and the lack of a recent winning streak away from home raise questions.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last five meetings, Ethiopia have won 2, Senegal have won 3, and there have been 0 draws. All five matches were played in the Premier Division. Notably, the two Ethiopia wins came at home:5-3 on Nov 1,2021, and4-3 on Oct 21,2021. Senegal’s three wins were all on the road –4-3 on Jun 28,2021,8-3 on Jun 21,2021, and4-3 on May 27,2021. Goal-packed encounters are a trademark of this fixture; the last five produced an average of over seven goals per game.

Win Probability: Ethiopia or Senegal?

After normalizing the betting odds to remove the bookmaker margin and adjusting for team form and head-to-head record, the percentages are:

• Ethiopia win:20%
• Draw:30%
• Senegal win:50%

The odds strongly favour Senegal, but Ethiopia’s home advantage and their two home wins over Senegal in recent history cannot be ignored. Senegal’s three draws in their last five games also suggest they might struggle to convert possession into a decisive victory. Nevertheless, Senegal’s overall quality makes them the more likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers’ pre-match odds for 1X2 range from as low as 1.41 to as high as 1.83 for a Senegal win, with the draw offered between 2.25 and 4.85, and an Ethiopia win from 6.50 to 9.33. These odds underline Senegal’s clear favourite status. Based on the stats and the odds, the most likely outcome is a narrow Senegal victory, but a draw is also a realistic scenario –- especially given Senegal’s recent habit of sharing the points. Our match prediction is a 1-0 or 2-1 win for Senegal.