Hull City - Everton prediction 11 October 2026

The Hull City vs Everton prediction for the Premier League match on October 11, 2026, at 14:00, points towards a tightly contested affair. Everton enters as the favorite with a 36% win probability, while a draw seems the most likely outcome at 42%. Hull City has a 22% chance of taking all three points at The MKM Stadium.

Team Form

Hull City’s recent results have been inconsistent. In their last five matches they recorded one win, two draws, and two losses, with the sequence reading L, D, L, D, W. The win came away at Coventry City (1-0), while draws against Chelsea (2-2) and Aston Villa (0-0) showed resilience. Defeats to Newcastle United (1-2) and Sunderland (0-1) in the League Cup highlight their struggles.

Everton, on the other hand, are unbeaten in their last five outings: W, W, D, D, D. They secured home victories over Ipswich Town (1-0) and Wolverhampton Wanderers (1-0), then recorded credible draws against Tottenham Hotspur (0-0), Manchester United (2-2), and Bournemouth (1-1). This solid run gives them confidence heading to Hull.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record clearly favors Everton. Across four recent meetings, Hull City have never won, while Everton claimed one victory and three matches ended in draws. The most recent encounter, an FA Cup tie in January 2022, finished 2-2. The last Premier League clashes both came in the 2016/17 season: a 2-2 draw at Hull and a 4-0 Everton win at Goodison Park. Hull’s inability to beat Everton in any of these fixtures is a telling factor.

League Table Positions

After five Premier League rounds, Everton sit 7th with 9 points (2 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses), scoring 6 and conceding only 3. Hull City are just behind in 8th place with 8 points (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss) and a 6-4 goal difference. At home, Hull have taken 4 points from two matches (1 win, 1 draw, goals 2-0), while Everton’s away form is also strong—they’ve yet to lose on their travels. The table underlines a narrow gap between the sides.

Win Probability: Hull City or Everton?

Based on a thorough analysis of the available data—odds, team form, head-to-head record, league positions and home/away factor—the probability for each outcome is:

• Hull City win: 22%
• Draw: 42%
• Everton win: 36%

The bookmakers' implied probabilities (using inverse odds and normalizing) give the draw a strong 40-41% chance, and Everton’s unbeaten run lifts their winning chance above Hull’s. Hull’s home advantage is partially offset by their patchy form and a poor H2H record (0 wins in four). Therefore, the likeliest result is a stalemate, but Everton are better placed to grab victory than the hosts.

Odds & Match Prediction

Leading bookmakers price the match with average odds around 3.60 for a Hull City win, 2.15 for the draw, and 2.50 for an Everton away win. These odds reflect the tight nature of the contest and a slight leaning toward Everton. Our prediction, based on the stats, is that the match will end in a draw, though Everton’s current form could nick a narrow win. A bet on Under 2.5 goals also fits the profile, given both teams’ defensive solidity so far this season.