Excelsior 31 - AFC 34 Alkmaarse prediction 22 September 2026

The Excelsior 31 vs AFC '34 prediction for this KNVB Beker clash on Sep 22, 2026, at 19:00 is overwhelmingly in favor of the home side. Our analysis, combining bookmaker odds, recent form, and home advantage, gives Excelsior 31 a 70% win probability, while AFC '34 has just a 10% chance of causing an upset. The draw is rated at 20%.

The KNVB Beker is the premier cup competition in the Netherlands, and both teams will be determined to progress. However, the gulf in class and current form makes Excelsior 31 the clear favorite to win inside 90 minutes.

Team Form

Excelsior 31 has been in sensational form, winning five consecutive matches in all competitions. In the 3 Derde Divisie, they have claimed away victories at Hoogeveen (2-0), Staphorst (4-2), and SV Urk (2-1), and they dismantled Eemdijk 4-0 at home. Their KNVB Beker campaign started with a professional 1-0 win at Harkemase Boys. Across these five games, they scored 13 goals and conceded only 3, keeping two clean sheets. This run demonstrates both attacking depth and defensive resilience, making them a formidable opponent at this level.

AFC '34's recent record is sparse. Their only recent result is a 4-1 home win over Scherpenzeel in the KNVB Beker on Sep 1, 2026. That victory was impressive, but it came against lower-league opposition. The only other match in our database is a 1-0 home win against Oss from October 2018, which is too dated to be relevant. With just two wins on record and a huge gap in match sharpness, AFC '34 faces a massive challenge to compete with a team as in-form as Excelsior 31.

Head-to-Head Record

There is no head-to-head history between Excelsior 31 and AFC '34. The two clubs have never met in any competition, so this KNVB Beker tie is a completely fresh matchup. The lack of prior encounters adds a small element of uncertainty, but the vast difference in current form and odds makes it unlikely to affect the outcome.

Win Probability: Excelsior 31 or AFC '34?

We calculated the win probabilities by first taking the inverse of the average bookmaker odds (home 1.275, draw 3.555, away 7.3075) and normalizing to remove the overround. This gave a baseline of 65% for a home win, 23% for the draw, and 12% for an away win. We then adjusted these figures based on team form and home advantage. Excelsior 31's perfect five-match winning streak and the fact they are playing at home increased their probability to 70%. The draw was slightly reduced to 20%, and AFC '34's chance was lowered to 10%, reflecting their lack of recent competitive action and the extremely long odds offered on an away win. In summary, Excelsior 31 is the clear favorite to win in 90 minutes.

Odds & Match Prediction

The pre-match odds from various bookmakers show a strong consensus. The home win is available at 1.25–1.29, the draw at 2.52–2.90, and an away win at 6.40–7.00. One bookmaker offered a draw at 6.00 and an away win at 9.33, but this is an outlier. These odds underline Excelsior 31's status as the heavy favorite. Our final prediction is a home win for Excelsior 31. Given the short price, bettors might consider alternative markets such as Excelsior 31 to win to nil or over 2.5 total goals, as the home side has been scoring freely and keeping clean sheets.