Fajr Sepasi - Aluminium Arak prediction 13 October 2026

The Fajr Sepasi vs Aluminium Arak prediction for this Iran Pro League fixture on October 13, 2026, overwhelmingly points towards a draw. After analysing the latest odds, recent form and head‑to‑head statistics, we give a draw a 50% probability, with Aluminium Arak at 30% and Fajr Sepasi at 20% to win.

Team Form

Fajr Sepasi come into this match in poor shape. Their last five results read two losses, two draws and a single win (L, L, D, D, W). In that run they suffered a heavy 6‑1 defeat at Foolad Mobarakeh Sepahan and a 1‑0 loss at Foolad Khuzestan. At home, they could only manage goalless draws against Zob Ahan and a 1‑1 against Mes Shahre Babak, failing to register a win on their own turf.

Aluminium Arak, by contrast, are unbeaten in their last five outings (D, D, W, D, W). They drew 1‑1 at home with Malavan and held Esteghlal Tehran to a 0‑0 stalemate. Away from home they have been especially strong, winning 2‑0 at Gol Gohar and 2‑1 at Shams Azar Qazvin. That flawless away record (three wins from three in the league) makes them extremely hard to beat on the road.

Head‑to‑Head Record

Historically, meetings between these two sides have favoured Aluminium Arak. The overall head‑to‑head record across all competitions shows 2 Fajr Sepasi wins, 6 draws and 4 Aluminium Arak victories. The most recent clash, on 29 November 2025, ended in a 1‑1 draw at Aluminium Arak’s ground. The pattern of draws is strong, while Aluminium Arak have lost only twice in 12 encounters.

League Table Positions

Aluminium Arak sit 5th in the Pro League standings with 13 points from 7 matches (3 wins, 4 draws, 0 losses). They have scored 9 and conceded just 4. Fajr Sepasi are not inside the top 12 of the overall table, indicating they occupy a much lower position. Notably, Aluminium Arak rank 1st in the away table, having taken maximum points from their three road trips (9 points, 6 goals scored, 1 conceded). Fajr Sepasi do not appear in the top 8 of the home standings.

Win Probability: Fajr Sepasi or Aluminium Arak?

We have calculated the win probability for this match using a combination of bookmaker odds, form, head‑to‑head record and the home/away factor. The raw odds (home 2.82, draw 1.82, away 4.05) already indicate a draw as the most likely result. When we remove the bookmaker margin and adjust for Fajr Sepasi’s weak home performances and Aluminium Arak’s perfect away campaign, the probabilities become:

• Fajr Sepasi win: 20%
• Draw: 50%
• Aluminium Arak win: 30%

Fajr Sepasi’s inability to win at home and their poor recent results reduce their chances well below the raw odds‑implied figure. Aluminium Arak’s unbeaten run and dominant away form push their likelihood above the pure bookmaker expectation. The draw remains the standout outcome, accounting for half of all possible scenarios.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers are strongly backing the draw in this encounter. The best available odds at the time of writing are 2.82 for a Fajr Sepasi victory, 1.82 for the draw, and 4.05 for an Aluminium Arak away win. These prices clearly show that the betting market sees the draw as the safest result, with Aluminium Arak holding a slight edge over the home side.

Based on the stats, our Fajr Sepasi vs Aluminium Arak prediction is that a draw is the most likely match outcome. A draw‑no‑bet on Aluminium Arak or the double chance (draw or Aluminium Arak) offer the most value in the betting market, while a home win for Fajr Sepasi appears very unlikely given their current form and league standing.