Fajr Sepasi - Paykan prediction 19 October 2026

Our Fajr Sepasi vs Paykan prediction for this Pro League clash on Oct 19 at 14:15 sees the home side as the favorite, holding a 38% win probability. Fajr Sepasi's unbeaten home record and dominant head-to-head history give them the edge, though Paykan are very capable of frustrating the hosts with a draw.

Team Form

Fajr Sepasi's recent form has been inconsistent. Their last five results read: W, L, L, D, D. They secured a strong 2-1 home win against Aluminium Arak on Oct 13 but suffered heavy defeats on the road, losing 6-1 to Foolad Mobarakeh Sepahan and 1-0 to Foolad Khuzestan. At home, they've been much more solid, remaining unbeaten in their own stadium with draws against Mes Shahre Babak (1-1) and Zob Ahan (0-0).

Paykan's form is similar, showing D, L, W, L, D in their last five matches. They drew 1-1 at home with Shams Azar Qazvin on Oct 10. Their away performances have been a concern, losing 1-0 at both Esteghlal Tehran and Zob Ahan. A 2-0 home victory over Sanat Naft Abadan was a bright spot, but finding consistency on their travels remains a key challenge.

Head-to-Head Record

History heavily favors Fajr Sepasi. In five previous meetings, Fajr Sepasi have won twice, with three matches ending in draws. Paykan have never beaten Fajr Sepasi. Their most recent encounter on Nov 1, 2025, finished in a 2-2 draw. All three matches from 2021 and 2022 ended in 1-1 stalemates, while Fajr Sepasi recorded back-to-back 1-0 away victories in November 2021. The historical data shows extremely tight contests, but a clear inability for Paykan to secure a win.

League Table Positions

Fajr Sepasi sit 11th in the Pro League with 10 points from 8 matches (2W, 4D, 2L), scoring 6 goals and conceding 10. Their home record is respectable, placing 8th with 6 points from 4 games, still undefeated (1W, 3D). Paykan are one place behind in 12th with 9 points from 8 matches (2W, 3D, 3L), scoring 6 and conceding 7. The away standings are not available for Paykan, indicating they rank outside the top 8 on the road. The table shows two evenly matched sides in the bottom half, separated by a single point.

Win Probability: Fajr Sepasi or Paykan?

Based on the provided stats, recent form, and head-to-head history, we have calculated the match outcome probabilities. Fajr Sepasi has a 38% chance of winning, the draw is at 40%, and Paykan holds a 22% chance. This calculation uses the bookmaker odds as a base — properly balancing the implied probabilities from the most common odds (home 2.50, draw 2.00, away 3.00) — and then adjusts for Fajr Sepasi's undefeated home record and overwhelming H2H superiority. The 62% combined probability for a draw or a narrow Fajr Sepasi win confirms that siding with the double chance for the hosts is the statistical play, but the most likely single outcome is a draw.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer solid value for a close contest. The best odds available see a Fajr Sepasi win at 2.50, a draw at 1.92, and a Paykan away victory at 3.20. The notably low odds for the draw immediately highlight the market's expectation of a tight, low-scoring affair. Based on the stats, the ten-game H2H streak without a Paykan win, and both teams' recent struggles for goals, the data points towards a match with few goals. The most likely result is a draw, but the safer prediction is Fajr Sepasi or Draw on the double chance.