Lochin - FarDu Fergana prediction 26 October 2026

Lochin vs FarDu Fergana prediction for the Uzbekistan Pro League match on October 26, 2026, at 10:00 UTC. Based on the latest odds, team form, and head-to-head record, Lochin enters this fixture as the slight favorite with a 48% win probability, while FarDu Fergana holds a 28% chance and the draw sits at 24%.

Team Form

Lochin

Lochin's last five matches show a mixed run: D, W, W, L, L. They drew 4-4 away at Kattaqorgon on Oct 18, then beat Olimpik Mobiuz 2-1 at home on Oct 12 and thrashed BuxDU Buxoro 6-2 away on Oct 7. However, they lost 0-3 at home to Respublika FA on Sep 21 and fell 0-2 away to Aral Samali PFK on Sep 13. That's two wins, one draw, and two defeats, with 12 goals scored and 12 conceded in this period.

FarDu Fergana

FarDu Fergana's recent form reads L, L, D, W, W. They lost 0-1 at home to Metallurg Bekabad on Oct 19 and 0-3 at home to Kattaqorgon on Oct 12. Before that, they drew 2-2 away at Olimpik Mobiuz on Oct 7, beat BuxDU Buxoro 3-1 at home on Sep 22, and won 3-2 away at Respublika FA on Sep 12. The away side has scored 8 and conceded 9 in these five games, showing some defensive vulnerability.

Head-to-Head Record

These teams have met only once before. On July 25, 2026, FarDu Fergana defeated Lochin 2-1 at home in the Pro League. That single result gives FarDu Fergana a 1-0 lead in the head-to-head, with no draws recorded.

League Table Positions

In the overall Pro League standings, FarDu Fergana sits 6th with 40 points from 23 matches (11 wins, 7 draws, 5 losses), while Lochin is 8th with 39 points (11 wins, 6 draws, 6 losses). The gap is just one point. At home, Lochin ranks 6th with 19 points from 11 games (5 wins, 4 draws, 2 losses), scoring 16 and conceding 11. FarDu Fergana's away record is not among the top eight in the league, indicating a weaker performance on the road. This home advantage strengthens Lochin's position.

Win Probability: Lochin vs FarDu Fergana Prediction

Using the inverse of the average bookmaker odds (home 1.99, draw 3.96, away 3.01) and normalizing to remove the margin, the raw implied probabilities are 46.2% for a Lochin win, 23.2% for a draw, and 30.5% for a FarDu Fergana win. Adjusting for recent form and home/away stats, we raise Lochin's chance slightly and lower FarDu Fergana's. The final win probabilities are:

• Lochin win: 48%
• Draw: 24%
• FarDu Fergana win: 28%

Lochin is the more likely winner, but the match remains competitive with a significant chance of an away result.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer the following 1X2 odds: home win 1.92–2.05, draw 3.75–4.12, away win 3.00–3.04. These odds clearly price Lochin as the favorite. Our Lochin vs FarDu Fergana prediction is a home win, based on the stats: Lochin's solid home form, FarDu Fergana's weaker away performances, and the adjusted probability model. However, the draw and an away upset cannot be ruled out given the narrow gap in the table.