Farnborough - Uxbridge prediction 22 September 2026

Welcome to this Farnborough vs Uxbridge prediction for the FA Cup match on September 22, 2026, at 19:45. Based on the latest odds, team form, and division gap, Farnborough enter the tie as favourites with a 45% win probability, while Uxbridge have a 27% chance of causing an upset and the draw is placed at 28%.

Farnborough vs Uxbridge Prediction

This FA Cup clash sees National League South side Farnborough host Southern League Premier Division outfit Uxbridge. Bookmakers’ average odds of 1.60 for a home win reflect the tier advantage, but recent performances suggest the gap might be smaller than the prices indicate. Our analysis gives Farnborough a 45% chance, the draw a 28% chance, and Uxbridge a 27% chance.

Team Form

Farnborough’s last five outings (L, L, L, W, D) highlight a tough run. They suffered three straight defeats – 0-1 at home to Dover Athletic, 0-2 at Hampton & Richmond, and a heavy 0-4 home loss to Tonbridge Angels – before a 2-0 win at Braintree Town and a 1-1 draw at Maidenhead United. The backline has leaked goals, and they’ve managed just one clean sheet in those five.

Uxbridge come in with much brighter form (L, W, D, W, W). After a 0-1 loss at Berkhamsted, they thrashed Chichester City 5-0 at home, drew 0-0 with Wimborne Town, won 2-1 at Bath City, and edged a 5-4 thriller at home to Taunton Town. They have scored 12 goals in their last three wins, showing real attacking firepower.

Head-to-Head Record

There is no historical head-to-head data between Farnborough and Uxbridge. This will be the first competitive meeting between the two clubs.

Win Probability: Farnborough or Uxbridge?

Starting from the bookmakers’ average odds (home 1.60, draw 2.57, away 4.34), the implied probabilities were Farnborough 50.2%, draw 31.3%, Uxbridge 18.5% after removing the margin. We adjust these figures using the contrasting recent form and the home advantage:

• Farnborough win: 45% – they play at a higher level and have home turf, but three losses in five and defensive frailties lower their chances.
• Draw: 28% – Cup ties between sides in different tiers often stay tight, and Farnborough’s last away result was a draw.
• Uxbridge win: 27% – their excellent run (3 wins in 5) and high-scoring form make an upset a real possibility.

Farnborough remain the more likely winner, but the numbers show the tie is far from one-sided.

Odds & Match Prediction

Average bookmaker odds for the 1X2 market: Farnborough 1.60, draw 2.57, Uxbridge 4.34. The odds see Farnborough as clear favourites. Our prediction, based on the stats, is a closely contested match. Farnborough should have enough quality to edge it, but Uxbridge’s attacking form cannot be ignored – a low-scoring home win or a score draw are the most realistic outcomes. Punters may find value in the ‘both teams to score’ market given both defences have conceded recently.