Fatih Karagumruk - Ankara Keciorengucu prediction 19 October 2026

The Fatih Karagumruk vs Ankara Keciorengucu prediction for October 19, 2026, points towards a tightly contested match in Turkey's 1st League. Based on statistical analysis and bookmaker expectations, Ankara Keciorengucu enters as a marginal favorite with a 39% win probability, compared to Fatih Karagumruk's 34% chance, leaving a 27% probability for the draw.

Team Form

Fatih Karagumruk's recent form has been inconsistent, reflected in their last five results: L, D, W, D, L. They are coming off a 1-0 away loss to Mardinspor on October 15. Before that, they managed a 1-1 home draw against Muglaspor on October 11. While they did secure a 2-0 away win against Erokspor in September, the overall picture suggests a team struggling for momentum.

Ankara Keciorengucu shows greater resilience. Their last five matches across all competitions read: D, W, W, D, D. They played out a 0-0 home draw with Igdir Belediyespor on October 14. Impressively, they secured away victories at Bodrumspor (2-0) and Genclerbirligi (1-0) earlier in the month. This unbeaten streak, while draw-heavy, demonstrates solid defensive organization.

Head-to-Head Record

History between these two sides favors the away team in this fixture. In their last five meetings, Fatih Karagumruk has 2 wins, while Ankara Keciorengucu has 3, with no draws recorded. The most recent clash on April 27, 2025, saw Fatih Karagumruk win 1-0 at home. However, Ankara Keciorengucu won the previous two encounters, including a 2-0 away victory in December 2019. This head-to-head record demonstrates that the visitor has often found success on the road in this matchup.

League Table Positions

In the overall 1st League standings, Ankara Keciorengucu holds a significant advantage. They sit 7th with 17 points from 10 matches (4 wins, 5 draws, 1 loss), scoring 19 goals and conceding only 10. Fatih Karagumruk is 12th with 13 points from 10 matches (3 wins, 4 draws, 3 losses), with a balanced goal record of 13 scored and 13 conceded. The 4-point gap reflects the visitors' superior consistency this season.

When looking specifically at home and away forms, Fatih Karagumruk is yet to lose at home (2 wins, 3 draws), which provides some optimism. Ankara Keciorengucu has been solid on their travels with a 2-2-1 away record, proving difficult to beat.

Win Probability: Fatih Karagumruk or Ankara Keciorengucu?

Our win probability calculation combines the inverse of the available odds with an adjustment for recent form and league standing. The bookmaker consensus implies a very even contest. Fatih Karagumruk has a 34% chance of winning. The draw is rated at 27%. Ankara Keciorengucu has a 39% chance of winning. The visitors are considered more likely to take all three points due to their better league position, superior defensive record, and an excellent recent away form run where they have not lost in regulation time across their last five matches.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see this as a match where any outcome is possible. The pre-match odds reflect the tight nature of the contest, with one price set indicating home odds of 2.75, a draw at 2.25, and an away win at 3.00. Another bookmaker offers a draw as low as 2.18, highlighting the market's expectation of a close game.

Match Prediction: Based on the stats, form, and head-to-head record, Ankara Keciorengucu is the slight favorite to win. However, given Fatih Karagumruk's unbeaten home record this season, the draw is a very realistic outcome. The prediction leans towards an away win, but the value may sit with the double chance for the visitors or the draw.